The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Carney: Recent Regional Banking Failures Put a Silver Bullet Into Stablecoins
“I think this probably puts a, you know, a silver bullet into stable coins.”
Carney: Mainstream commercial deployment of hydrogen energy will arrive in years
“I think the example a little closer to home for me would be in hydrogen, where we've had a couple of those euphoric cycles. The last one was early 2000. We're entering another, and I think a much more solidly grounded one. Time will tell though. I can't actual…”
Carney: 10% of US Regional Banks Fail Mark-to-Market Capital Tests
“Almost one in 10 U S regional banks would fall below their minimum capital levels if all of their assets were marked to market.”
Carney: Banking turmoil will slow US growth and trigger a recession
“Let's say in the US, it'll probably slow growth by, you know, half to three quarters of a percentage point. It's probably enough if people felt that the US economy was on the cusp of you know, this narrow path between avoiding recession and having a recession.…”
Carney: The Federal Reserve Will Cap Interest Rates at 5.25%
“And you know, if we had been talking at the end of February, early March before Silicon Valley bank, I would have said something to the effect of, I think the fed may have to go to six percent fed funds. Now I think they'll probably stop at five, five and a qu…”
Carney: US Clean Energy Investment Will Overtake Europe Within Years
“They have the U S in the, in this space of the time, since we last spoke has gone from well behind Europe, the UK, amongst the major industrialized countries in addressing climate change to putting in place, you know, the measures now driving with the investme…”
Carney: Crypto and DeFi face pullback, but resilient apps will establish bottom
“The extent to which you're at the furthest end of the spectrum in terms of risk tends to have a larger effect on the value, at least in temporary terms for those risk assets. You could crypto various DeFi applications in that camp. They've had a very large run…”
Carney: Bitcoin acts as an amplifier of market risk, not a hedge
“What we've seen to some extent with Bitcoin, and it's too short a time series to be definitive about this, is that in some respects been an amplifier of overall risk appetite, certainly over the course of the last”
Carney: Central bank digital currencies will operate at the wholesale level
“Well, one of the things I expect to happen is that there will be central bank digital currencies. That they will be at the wholesale level. So they will serve many of the wholesale applications of some of the stable coins and others.”
Carney: Prolonged High Interest Rates Will Force Regional Bank Consolidation
“The longer higher rates go on and the more deposits move to perceived safer places, we're going to see more at a minimum, I'll put it politely. We're going to see more consolidation in that sector.”
Carney: Banking system has six times the loss absorbency of 2008
“The system as a whole has more than six times the loss absorbency it had then. It has much higher liquidity across the system.”
Carney: Bank funding will shift to wholesale, becoming more volatile
“I do think what this does lead to though, is the system moving more towards wholesale finance, narrow banking in different pockets, and that the funding of banks Will over time become more wholesale, less retail, more volatile, more credit differentiation.”
Carney: China accounted for half of global clean energy investment in 2022
“China accounted for half of clean energy investment last year, about five hundred and fifty billion US of the 1.1 trillion. So half in effect. Renewable investments growing at 50% a year. They have more than 50% of the EV market in terms of the flow there.”
Carney: Two-Thirds of Global Carbon Emissions Come From Emerging Markets
“Two thirds of the emissions in the world now come from the emerging world. Now that includes China. China's about 30% of global emissions. So, but you've got 35% plus of emissions coming from countries that most private investors never visit, don't have exposu…”
Carney: 1% central bank rate hike increases risk discount rates 1.5–2.5%
“What tends to happen when interest rates increase is that there is a amplified impact on the interest rates of risk assets or the discount rates on risk assets. So if the bank rate goes up by one percentage point, the discount rate tends to go up by one and a …”
Carney: 95% of circulating money is created by private banks
“95% of the money that circulates in the system is created by the private sector today.”
Carney: Real Wages Flatlined for 40 Years in First Industrial Revolution
“And, you know, there's a term in economics called the Engels pause, which is the experience of When you have a big technological change, there is a disconnect between the productivity growth of labor and the real incomes of labor, and if you look in the first …”