The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Carney: Recent Regional Banking Failures Put a Silver Bullet Into Stablecoins
“I think this probably puts a, you know, a silver bullet into stable coins.”
Carney: Achieving Net Zero Requires Growing Nuclear Power 50% by 2050
“There's no net zero without nuclear power. A lot of people don't like to think about nuclear and think that there's an easy right to shut it down, but in fact we have to grow it by another 50% between now and twenty-fifty worldwide.”
Carney: Mainstream commercial deployment of hydrogen energy will arrive in years
“I think the example a little closer to home for me would be in hydrogen, where we've had a couple of those euphoric cycles. The last one was early 2000. We're entering another, and I think a much more solidly grounded one. Time will tell though. I can't actual…”
Carney: Fintech and technology are shifting the financial system toward narrow banking
“And as a bigger picture point, the system is moving towards a form of narrow banking as a core competitor to a fractional fractional reserve banks. In other words, banks that create their own money and leverage up. And it's able to do that. The system's able t…”
Carney: Expecting a Return to Pre-Inflation Low Interest Rates Is Unrealistic
“To assume that we're going back to that world after we get through this bout of inflation is also in my view, an unrealistic assumption. You're just gambling for redemption on that one.”
Carney: Banking turmoil will slow US growth and trigger a recession
“Let's say in the US, it'll probably slow growth by, you know, half to three quarters of a percentage point. It's probably enough if people felt that the US economy was on the cusp of you know, this narrow path between avoiding recession and having a recession.…”
Carney: The Federal Reserve Will Cap Interest Rates at 5.25%
“And you know, if we had been talking at the end of February, early March before Silicon Valley bank, I would have said something to the effect of, I think the fed may have to go to six percent fed funds. Now I think they'll probably stop at five, five and a qu…”
Carney: US Clean Energy Investment Will Overtake Europe Within Years
“They have the U S in the, in this space of the time, since we last spoke has gone from well behind Europe, the UK, amongst the major industrialized countries in addressing climate change to putting in place, you know, the measures now driving with the investme…”
Carney: Crypto and DeFi face pullback, but resilient apps will establish bottom
“The extent to which you're at the furthest end of the spectrum in terms of risk tends to have a larger effect on the value, at least in temporary terms for those risk assets. You could crypto various DeFi applications in that camp. They've had a very large run…”
Carney: NFT and metaverse ownership innovations will ultimately endure
“A series of other elements that are being developed around NFTs and the fractionalization of ownership or different forms of ownership in the metaverse. These are new elements of finance or new elements of the economy, bridges and payment made possible by thes…”
Carney: Many cryptocurrencies and crypto assets will not survive
“Look, I think that there's a wide form of, as you know, and those listening will know, there's a wide range of cryptocurrencies, crypto assets. Many of them will not survive.”
Carney: Scaling crypto payment systems will inevitably face central bank oversight
“When a payment system gets to scale, it's in everybody's interest that that system is operationally resilient, that it's well grounded, and that it's as efficient as possible. And in all of those respects, it becomes more and more difficult at large scale for …”
Carney: Successful cryptocurrencies must eventually integrate with central monetary systems
“And my view at least is that the value of the crypto asset, the cryptocurrency that links over time, there's a Laffer curve, the more successful it is, Ultimately, the more it will need to be brought into the core of the system, perhaps linked with a stable co…”
Carney: Crypto and DeFi face a pullback, but resilient applications will survive
“To some extent, it's been indiscriminate, and there can, you know, there's likely to be a pullback. Now, let me not say, unless anyone thinks that, that a pullback means an end, because I think I've tried to stress that there's real value being created There i…”
Carney: Central bank digital currencies will operate at the wholesale level
“Well, one of the things I expect to happen is that there will be central bank digital currencies. That they will be at the wholesale level. So they will serve many of the wholesale applications of some of the stable coins and others.”
Carney: Only a minority of incumbent banks will adapt over 20 years
“I think that some will, but they'll be the minority. I think a number of them will shift towards becoming more white-label credit providers, because In the end, somebody needs a balance sheet to make the loan, and that service isn't necessarily, that expertise…”
Carney: Fiat will remain store of value, but not primary payment method
“In the end, I think the unit of account is still going to be in the domestic fiat. The ultimate store of value will be in the domestic Fiat, but that the fiat isn't necessarily what's going to be used for the means of payment.”
Carney: AI and NFTs Will Initially Increase Income Inequality
“So NFTs fall in this camp. Artificial intelligence, machine learning absolutely falls into that campus. Well, ultimately beneficial, but a period of time we're likely to increase inequality.”
Carney: Prolonged High Interest Rates Will Force Regional Bank Consolidation
“The longer higher rates go on and the more deposits move to perceived safer places, we're going to see more at a minimum, I'll put it politely. We're going to see more consolidation in that sector.”
Carney: Universal US bank deposit guarantees cannot happen quickly
“It has to be duly authorized, and in the US that requires an act of Congress. So the effective way to guarantee all those deposits is not going to happen quickly.”
Carney: Bank funding will shift to wholesale, becoming more volatile
“I do think what this does lead to though, is the system moving more towards wholesale finance, narrow banking in different pockets, and that the funding of banks Will over time become more wholesale, less retail, more volatile, more credit differentiation.”
Carney: Global clean energy investment on track to quadruple by 2030
“The level of clean energy investments, so renewables and other investment Has tripled over the course of the last five years. It's on course to quadruple again over the course of you know, between now and the end of the decade.”
Carney: EV sales will exceed 50% in advanced economies by 2030
“Three, four years ago, about four percent of new auto sales were EVs. This year it's looking like it's going to be closer to 20% worldwide. That is, those are huge, huge numbers. And in most advanced economies, it's likely to be more one and two by the end of …”
Mark Carney: AI will create new jobs rather than eliminate human work
“I'm not a AI will mean that none of us are ever going to work again. I'm in the AI will enable new jobs.”
Carney: Platforms enabling asset fractionalization and portfolio construction will win in crypto
“I think the question, one of the most interesting ones will come around hard assets, other hard assets, whether it's real estate, other hard assets, and the fractionalization of those assets, and the ownership, and the way portfolios can be Constructed. So who…”
Carney: Crypto exchanges will evolve to trade underlying real and digital assets
“Over time, I think the role of the exchange will increasingly be about the exchange of the underlying asset, which is not the Currency. But as I say, the underlying asset, whether it's a piece of art, whether it's a function in a video game, whether it's a fra…”