The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Over 99% of AI's economic value will accrue to users
“I think AI is the exact, I think it's already that way. I think it's going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that. It might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is going to accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:00:13 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Andreessen: 5 billion people will use smartphone AI within years
“We're not that many years away from five billion people in the world having AI running on five billion people who have smartphones and internet access.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 57:41 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Andreessen: a16z will 100% not pass on defense tech deals again
“And so you'll notice that like we are now extremely enthusiastic investors in defense tech and in you know, things involving law enforcement, national security, public safety and, you know, say a hundred percent, we would not make that same mistake again.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:12:54 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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