why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Over 99% of AI's economic value will accrue to users
“I think AI is the exact, I think it's already that way. I think it's going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that. It might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is going to accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI.”
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Companies falsely blame AI for corporate layoffs
“And now they all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI. Right, and I know this for a fact, because number one, I talk to them, but number two, I know this for a fact, because AI until, like, literally until, like, December, right, was not actually …”
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Silicon Valley is more centralized than ever due to AI
“The tech industry is more centralized in Silicon Valley than it has been in its entire existence, and I think it's AI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: a16z has no reasons or needs to go public
“There's nothing that we're missing today that we could solve by going public.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Andreessen: 5 billion people will use smartphone AI within years
“We're not that many years away from five billion people in the world having AI running on five billion people who have smartphones and internet access.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Andreessen: a16z will 100% not pass on defense tech deals again
“And so you'll notice that like we are now extremely enthusiastic investors in defense tech and in you know, things involving law enforcement, national security, public safety and, you know, say a hundred percent, we would not make that same mistake again.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Historical wealth inequality was far worse than under capitalism
“It's definitely not greater than it's ever been, and we know that because we know history and we know the natural mode of history for thousands of years was, like, there's a strong man, like, and we call him the king or the prince, right, or the whatever triba…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: AI was a major money-loser for VCs from 1945 to 2017
“AI was a tremendously good way to lose a lot of money in venture capital from 19, from 1945 to 20 17 right”
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Top venture returns over 50 years persistently belong to same firms
“If you just look at the great outcomes adventure over the last 50 years, if you just rank the outcomes, it's just like, it's the same names over and over and over again.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marc Andreessen drafts his major essays in just two hours
“Basically everything that you mentioned, the actual drafting in every case has been like two hours. It's just like, it's just rip it and go, but it's because it's because I spent the preceding two years getting increasingly frustrated.”