The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lin Qiao: AI future will feature millions of specialized models, not AGI
“I really believe the future will not be a few small number of AGI models dominating the world. I really believe the future will be, it may be scary, but I think that's true, it will be millions of specialized models, one per application, per use case.”
Lin Qiao: AI token costs will drop 10x in three years, driving 100x usage
“I do think the cost of token will go down drastically. 10 X cost reduction in the next three years, and this 10 X cost reduction will drive a hundred X usage.”
Lin Qiao: The future of AI is private, specialized intelligence
“We believe the future of the frontier of the intelligence, actually private intelligence, our specialized intelligence.”
Qiao: Fireworks daily token count could grow 20x-100x by next year
“Anywhere ranging from 20 to a hundred X could be possible.”
Lin Qiao: Nations will build sovereign AI models like power grids
“I definitely see that possibility. I also see, if we think about the general intelligence model as the electricity layer, as a power line, every country should own their own power line, right?”
Qiao: AI market will shift from token maxing to ROI maxing
“In the next couple of years, as AI is getting more and more into production, there will be a lot of focus. In getting that clarity and getting that discipline out. The token maxing is just a thing in time, but we're quickly moving to ROI maxing, which is about…”
Qiao: Every company will own its custom AI intelligence within three years
“I really see people will own their, every single company will own their own intelligence as a must-have. It's not optional.”
Lin Qiao: Enterprise data will never be shared with third parties
“It will never get shared with anyone else because this is company's proprietary IP.”
Lin Qiao: US can build its own open-source AI ecosystem if China restricts access
“I do believe, in terms of talent density and resources, I do believe U.S. Will be able to build that open system by ourselves, and we should.”
Lin Qiao: token costs will fall drastically and cheaper infrastructure will invite far more usage
“I do think the cost of token will go down drastically. High price will invite a lot of people coming in to solve the problem, and it will invite competition. Competition will bring down the cost, and then eventually will lead into a very economical solution, r…”
Lin Qiao: Fireworks AI will not enter the application layer
“We absolutely are not going to move into application layer. Very clear to us.”
Lin Qiao: Major AI base IQ leaps will occur every 9-12 months
“I see those as every year or every three quarters, there's a major leap.”
Qiao: AI model routing will evolve into fully automated self-learning systems
“We also think there's a space to build a automatic routing system that can learn by itself, and that compound with automatic tuning system eventually. We think it should all be automated, and then you can see a self-evolving system based on what flow through y…”