The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Summers: A second Trump term would gravely damage the US economy
“I believe very strongly that by undermining the rule of law, On which contracts exchange and property depend by alienating the rest of the world and by pitting some groups of Americans against other groups of Americans and devaluing the idea of unity and commo…”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 37:21 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Summers: Fed cannot lower inflation to target without an economic downturn
“My own view, and I've said this many times, is that what Samuel Johnson said about second marriage is true about soft landings. They represent the triumph of hope over experience, and I don't think we're likely to be able to bring inflation down to its target …”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 8:19 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Larry Summers: The US Must Substantially Raise Tax Revenues
“Ultimately we are on an unsustainable path. And my view is that we're going to have to raise revenues quite substantially because I don't think there's going to be a lot of scope For cutting spending, given the way in which our population is aging, given the w…”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 13:09 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Summers: US dollar will remain the world's dominant reserve currency
“So if we don't make grave mistakes, I think the dollar's gonna remain the world's reserve currency.”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 29:19 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Summers: Fed interest rates do not need to reach Volcker-era levels
“There's nothing in the current situation that says to me that we need to get rates anywhere near where Volcker took them.”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 10:18 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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