why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Samani: Hivemapper mapped 10% of global roads, growing 10x faster than Google
“Hive Mapper has mapped over 10% of the world's roads in one year, and Hive Mapper is now, they have signed multiple customers who are buying this mapping data. They have not publicly disclosed who those customers are, but like, Hive Mapper has built a mapping …”
Assertion Supported
Samani: Only four insiders knew about the database manipulations at FTX
“There, we know now there were four people who knew. Sam, Caroline, Nishad, and Gary. No one else knew. When you keep the circle small, like, you can keep information hidden, and explicitly, in this case, the information was, go make arbitrary changes in the da…”
Assertion Partly supported
Samani: Helium cuts 99% of traditional wireless telecom costs
“And the goal of this model is, or what's great about this model is you physically remove 99% of the cost from the system. So labor cost goes to zero. Land cost goes to zero. Backhaul cost goes to zero. You just physically remove like all of the costs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Multicoin Capital hires blindly based on writing quality rather than resumes
“Step one of our hiring process is write an essay better than what's on our blog. I actually, I don't read your name. I don't read your background. I don't read your resume. I don't care. I just start reading the first words of your document.”
Prediction Held up
Samani: Changpeng Zhao will serve less than 18 months in prison
“I believe consensus is he will be less than 18 months.”