The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Samani: Donald Trump will be in jail before the 2024 election
“My assumption is he will be in jail before the election, so I don't know if you can.”
Samani: Tokens help distribute wealth rather than concentrate it
“Without question, tokens help distribute wealth.”
Samani: Ethereum will not have a scaling plan in 12 months
“Ethereum does not have a scaling plan seven years later. It still does not have one today. I do not think they will have one in the next 12 months.”
Samani: Hivemapper mapped 10% of global roads, growing 10x faster than Google
“Hive Mapper has mapped over 10% of the world's roads in one year, and Hive Mapper is now, they have signed multiple customers who are buying this mapping data. They have not publicly disclosed who those customers are, but like, Hive Mapper has built a mapping …”
Samani: Only four insiders knew about the database manipulations at FTX
“There, we know now there were four people who knew. Sam, Caroline, Nishad, and Gary. No one else knew. When you keep the circle small, like, you can keep information hidden, and explicitly, in this case, the information was, go make arbitrary changes in the da…”
Samani: Helium cuts 99% of traditional wireless telecom costs
“And the goal of this model is, or what's great about this model is you physically remove 99% of the cost from the system. So labor cost goes to zero. Land cost goes to zero. Backhaul cost goes to zero. You just physically remove like all of the costs.”
Samani: Excluding customers from equity will be viewed as a regulatory bug
“The fact that norms today around business are those parties typically have no equity ownership. I think we'll be looked upon, I think in 20 years we'll be looked back as a bug of capital markets regulation, not as a feature.”
Samani: Multicoin only invests if intended hold horizon is forever
“It doesn't for us and the reason it doesn't is we have some basic thresholds for making investments, and one of those thresholds is we will only make an investment if our intended hold horizon at the time of investment is forever. That doesn't mean we can't se…”
Samani: DeFi rails will eventually replace traditional regulated payment infrastructure
“DeFi payment rails are Objectively better than traditional rails. And you will see economic activity move off of traditional regulated rails to defy rails over time. That will take a while but it will happen.”
Samani: Every smartphone will have a built-in private key within ten years
“I want everyone in the world to have a private key built into their phone that is secure and that they can use for arbitrary financial movements, whether those are payments or investments and that they can do so across any application. And I have a high degree…”
Samani: Top crypto assets like Bitcoin and Solana lack obvious DCF models
“The largest assets by market cap, notably Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, et cetera are assets that don't really have an obvious DCF.”
Multicoin Capital hires blindly based on writing quality rather than resumes
“Step one of our hiring process is write an essay better than what's on our blog. I actually, I don't read your name. I don't read your background. I don't read your resume. I don't care. I just start reading the first words of your document.”
Samani: Changpeng Zhao will serve less than 18 months in prison
“I believe consensus is he will be less than 18 months.”