The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dickson: Capital concentration into mega-banks would be a travesty
“The community and regional banking system is the lifeblood of our Main Street economy, and if the outcome of all of this is a super concentration of funding and control of the banking system into systemically important institutions, that would be a travesty.”
Dickson: FDIC reported $620B in unrealized US bank losses in Q4 2022
“The report noted that banks' aggregate unrealized losses on securities remain, in their words, elevated at six hundred twenty billion dollars in Q-IV. In fact, throughout 2022, these unrealized losses were materially higher than at any other time in the last 1…”
Dickson: Only nine US banks failed in five years post-financial crisis reforms
“After, after Lehman's collapse, and that the global financial crisis, almost 400 banks failed in this three years after Lehman went down. And so then the regulatory frameworks were amped up, liquidity and capital requirements were amped up, and in the last fiv…”
Dickson: SVB failed due to duration and concentration risks, not credit risk
“For SVB, but unlike Lehman, their investments were in agency-backed MBS and Treasuries, relatively conservative and low risk at the time. They just went long on duration for their investments, and they had concentration risk in their depositor base.”
Dickson: SVB asset values exceeded total deposits at year end
“Now, if a quick look at their, and SVB's balance sheet as of year end if you take the market value of their investment portfolio, both the AFS securities and the health for maturity securities plus their loan portfolio, which should be saleable it's more than …”
Dickson: FDIC will orchestrate SVB sale to prevent systemic crisis
“I'm in complete agreement because I think the FDIC is fully aware that the potential crisis of confidence among depositors is something that must be avoided at all costs, and the simplest and most elegant solution to that is orchestrating continuity through a …”
Dickson: SVB invested over $90B in long-dated MBS
“So SVB invested heavily in long-dated securities, over ninety billion dollars, mostly in MBS with maturities greater than 10 years.”
Dickson: SVB's $15B mark-to-market gap exceeded its Q4 market cap
“At the end of 22, they reported ninety-one billion dollars of held to maturity securities, with the actual value of seventy-six billion. That 15, fifteen billion dollar gap Was bigger than their market cap for most of the fourth quarter.”
Dickson: SVB depositors tried to withdraw over $40B in one day
“When that didn't materialize, depositors panicked and attempted to withdraw over forty billion dollars in a single day.”