The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Scott: 95% of net new code will be AI-generated within five years
“95% is going to be AI generated. I think very little is going to be line by line is going to be human written code.”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 30:30 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: AI will render traditional product engineering teams obsolete within ten years
“It basically means, and like, I don't think this is next year, but it's probably not going to be 10 years. This whole notion that the, That, that you have teams of people who are, who, whose job is to go anticipate a bunch of very granular user needs in some n…”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 20:35 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: Future AI user interfaces will consist of many specialized agents
“The user interface that surfaces, those capabilities will probably be agents. And, you know, product managers, like I don't all don't believe in this, like one agent. For everything sort of theory. I think you'll have a lot of agents.”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 22:32 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: Future AI product managers must be deep domain experts
“Your product managers are probably going to have to be domain experts, like people who sort of deeply understand something like medicine or, you know, drug discovery or early round venture investing, or, you know, like, you know, just sort of pick your thing.”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 22:53 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: AI agent memory will improve significantly over the next year
“I think one of the things is going to happen because I know lots of people are working on it right now is memory is going to get a lot better over the next year or so, which means that as you're using an agent, like, and it remembers more and more about your p…”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 26:08 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: AI agents will execute tasks asynchronously within the next year
“I think there's going to be more over the next year of you sort of dispatching your agent to go do something and it like goes and works while you are not paying attention to it.”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 27:17 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: AI agents will become less transactional and session-oriented
“The agents, they will definitely be less transactional, less session-oriented going forward.”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 0:25 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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