why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Upside Partnership will remain small because scaling breaks the seed fund model
“The vision is to continue to be a small fund. Somewhere where it is now, the second fund that we raise is forty four million. I think sort of if I get too far above that, the model we're seeking to work with begins to break down a little bit. There may be addi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Upside Partnership expects to deploy 70% of its capital into follow-ons
“We expect about 70% of that will actually be deployed into follow-on investments.”
Insight
Seed valuation serves as a conviction litmus test, not a price filter
“So internally, when I think about valuation, I almost use it as a litmus test for my own enthusiasm, my own belief in whether or not a company can achieve its high aims. But I don't focus on it sort of that much at the seed stage.”
Disclosure
Upside Partnership stops writing follow-on checks at a $100 million valuation
“So before I mentioned, usually we Peter, you know, upside has been petering out as companies hit a hundred million dollars in valuation.”
Disclosure
Upside Partnership prefers not to take board seats in portfolio companies
“So I don't worry about whether or not we have a board seat. I, in fact, I almost prefer to sort of not have a board seat.”
Insight
Thematic investing fails at the seed stage because it happens too late
“I think it's very hard to be thematic at the seed stage. I think generally by the time you can identify a theme at the seed stage, it's probably too late.”
Insight
Early product is the least important evaluation factor in seed investing
“Product is probably the last thing I worry about when I think about product, especially at the seed stage or what the early vision of a product is. That helps you understand how the team thinks about the space as opposed to sort of being, you know, the thing y…”
Assertion Supported
Josh Koppelman ran Facebook ads targeting Yahoo employees during 2008 takeover
“Josh Koppelman, who had just started First Round Capital, had decided when he saw the news of the takeover attempt, he wanted to see if there's anyone at Yahoo who is sort of loose in the saddle and maybe thinking about joining a startup or starting a company.…”
Insight
Seed funds expanding to write lead checks creates direct competition
“As all these funds are trying to grow up and everyone was trying to be a lead investor, they're putting themselves in deeper and deeper competition with one another.”
Insight
Making portfolio founders fund partners increases mutual support
“If we could actually sort of make founders partners in the fund, they would be more supportive of one another.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Seed and friends-and-family rounds were virtually identical in 2008
“In 2008, there's very little difference between a seed round and a friends and family round”