The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Boyle: There Is Far More Shame in Losing on Price Than Overpaying
“I'm always amazed at investors who mock other investors for paying up for companies, and I think there's far more shame in losing on price than winning on price, and no one really wants to say that”
Boyle: Corporate and Social Pressures Mirror Soviet-Era Censorship
“And we've seen sort of that current that was really in existence under the former Soviet Union move to what we call democratic countries. But instead of that being influenced from kind of the state, it's been influenced from companies and from other people and…”
Boyle: Institutional Transparency Breeds Mistrust and Causes Legacy Institutions to Crumble
“Sort of this transparency that we were all looking forward to over the last decade to make things just much more elucidated to us, and I think what we're seeing is that actually that transparency breeds a lot of mistrust. These institutions only have their pow…”
Boyle: Young VCs Are Highly Mimetic and Desperate for Peer Validation
“And to me, that was some of the most liberating advice that I had received, because this field is so mimetic, and so many young people start out their careers wanting to impress other investors, and they're desperate to get into the hot deals because other peo…”
Boyle: Every Successful Founder Will Face Intense Scrutiny Over Next Decade
“And I think the biggest thing that I'm predicting will happen in the next 10 years to founders is that if you plan on being a successful founder, you are going to have a target on your back. It doesn't matter whether you are building a defense company or wheth…”
Boyle: Global Trust in Legacy Institutions Is Steadily Declining
“The broader thesis that I have is that we are watching this incredible global decline of institutional trust, and it's not just media, it's the U.S. Government, it's Brexit, it's university education, the Catholic Church, it's any institution that used to hold…”
Boyle: Substack and Patreon Let Creators Out-Earn Legacy Media Institutions
“You get amazing companies like Substack and Patreon and other creator-led companies that allow the creator to make more money than they could in these bloated institutions.”
Boyle: Top Journalists Will Leave Premier News Institutions for Independent Platforms
“So I do think you can see a shift even at the top, even at the Washington Post and the New York Times, where people will opt out of those premier institutions because they value the freedom to monetize their following. And they also value the freedom to say wh…”
Boyle: Venture Capital Resembles a Multiplayer Strategy Game
“And so I think the big takeaway from my thinking there is that, you know, he was the first person to tell me that investing is much more like a multiplayer strategy game than it is like any other asset class.”
Boyle: In 2017, No Silicon Valley Startup Competed With Defense Incumbents
“There are very few companies, and particularly in 2017, when Andrew was founded, there wasn't anyone in Silicon Valley building a new defense contractor that wanted to compete with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.”
Boyle: Media Is Narrowing Into Private Channels Due To Social Backlash
“And so I very much believe that we've entered a time where it's very difficult to say what you believe, and that's why these narrow communities and these, you know, whether it's a Substack newsletter or whether it's a signal channel where you can talk to a sma…”
Boyle: Anduril Solved a 30-Year Government Defense Incentive Problem
“Same thing with creating new defense companies like Andrel. For 30 years, the government has not been able to figure out how do we build new technology and how do we incentivize Silicon Valley to work with us, and Andrel has figured out how to align the incent…”
Boyle: Venture Capital and Journalism Hunt for the Same Three Elements
“They're the exact same job, except in journalism, you write a story, and in venture, you write a check. But you really are hunting for the same things. So the three components of a great story are strong protagonists, A contrarian hook or thesis that really ma…”
Boyle: Great Investing Requires Balancing Reason and Revelation
“I very much believe that investing is this unique combination of reason and revelation, and that understanding that mix is sort of the key to being a great investor, and I think it's also the key to being a great journalist.”
Boyle: Probabilistic Thinking Distinguishes Venture Capital From Journalism
“I'd say the biggest difference is the probabilistic thinking that you have to have as an investor. That's definitely not something that journalists think about in terms of looking at upside or looking at opportunity.”
Boyle: Hemant Taneja Is the Best Proactive Investor in Venture Capital
“Hey Montanesia is the best proactive investor in the business. He's someone who can see the future 10 years out and build companies from scratch as a co-founder with them and see them come to fruition.”
Boyle: Brian Singerman Is Silicon Valley's Best Reactive Investor
“The flip side of that is someone like Brian Singerman, who I think is one of the best reactive investors in the Valley, where he has no theses, doesn't think about the future, and just listens to the founder and the story and uses his own frameworks and is abl…”
Boyle: Journalist VC's Superpower Is Listening and Pressure-Testing Founder Conviction
“I'd say that the core superpower of a former journalist or the core superpower of many investors is to just listen to the And actually decide whether you believe the story to be true, and then be kind of a helpful, almost Socratic guide to the founder on their…”
Boyle Invests Almost Solely Based on Founder Narrative Fit
“I invest almost solely in what I call founder narrative fit, where I'm really, really focused on kind of certain traits and a founder.”
Boyle: Nova Credit was the only credit reporting agency built for immigrants
“With Novacreda and Misha, there really isn't another Credit reporting agency built for immigrants. No one else is building in that sector.”
Boyle: A Founder's Willingness to Teach Is Fundraising's Most Vital Part
“The more that you can demonstrate that you are learning, and the more that the founder is willing to teach you, to me, that is probably the most important part of the fundraising process.”
Boyle: COVID exposed both how and what K-12 students learn
“I think we're seeing, and I think every person with children right now is seeing this, that like there is a Huge change happening in K through 12 education because of COVID. And the two things that I think have really changed are parents are now aware of how t…”
Boyle: Navigating regulatory hurdles unlocks markets dominated by slow incumbents
“And if you can get through the regulatory hurdles or the procurement hurdles and see that market on the other side, you are competing against the slowest moving incumbents because they have had an effective monopoly for decades. That's true of education. That'…”
Boyle Avoids Investing in Binary Regulatory Bets
“There are companies that have been successful off of pure regulatory change, but I think that often leads to a lot of people running towards a regulatory change, and that's not sort of the way that I invest.”
Boyle: Anduril's Founding Team Is Equivalent to the 1998 Chicago Bulls
“Andrew was a very special case and that this team is So excellent. I mean, it really is, you know, I think everyone's watching The Last Dads, but it really is the 98 Chicago Bulls. I mean, this is such an extraordinary team that had worked together before, eve…”
Boyle: General Catalyst Didn't Lead an Anduril Round Until Series B
“With Anderil, we invested in the seed. We also invested in the A, but we didn't lead around until the series B when we co-led with Founders Fund.”
Boyle: Deep Tech Is Easier to Fund at Seed and Series B
“It's a lot easier to invest in seed in series B than it is to invest in A, and there's a reason for that, and that's because a lot of the companies I work with are deep tech companies, or they're engineering driven, and there is little traction at the A, so th…”
Boyle: Capital-Intensive Startups Should Raise Larger Seed Rounds
“If you are building a company that's going to take more capital, it makes sense to raise a larger seed because you know that it's going to take you much longer to get to those Series A milestones and those Series B milestones.”
Boyle: Middle-Tier Media Publications Will Collapse First
“I do think that we'll see the middle fallout first. I mean, we've already seen the middle fallout in terms of sort of small metro papers. And so, 100%, I do think we're going to see that trend.”
Boyle: Post-COVID trends will split between major infrastructure and communal living
“I think those are two prescriptions and two solutions that we're actually going to see coming out of COVID. We're going to see people building these intense infrastructure projects, or I hope we do, you know, sort of the Marc Andreessen, it's time to build. Bu…”
Boyle: Founders optimize too much for valuation and brand over mission alignment
“I think people optimize too much for brand and price and sort of short-term effects, and they're not looking solely for mission-driven people who are mission-aligned with them who will have their back and have courage when things get tough.”