why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silverman: E-commerce will consolidate into a tiny handful of winning platforms
“I find that thesis exceptionally unlikely. The brain can only remember a couple of brands, and so I think the world is consolidating around Fewer and fewer places to buy things online. I mean, if you're a tiny independent shop, you're going to recount on Googl…”
Assertion Supported
Silverman: Etsy refused cloud software due to internal handmade dogma
“Etsy believed that because Etsy was about handmade, Etsy should make everything itself. So Etsy didn't use the cloud and built almost all of its software itself. And that was sort of lore. It was considered strategy, but I don't think it was strategy. It was j…”
Assertion Supported
Silverman: Etsy cut 20% of staff, half of projects in five weeks
“We had to lay off over 200 people, you know, within five weeks of joining the company, we'd laid off 20% of the staff, and of the remaining staff, probably 80% of them had new jobs, and we'd shut down over half of all the projects that the company was working …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Silverman: eBay spent four months seeking Skype CEO before hiring him
“When they asked me to run Skype, I was at eBay. Honestly, they spent four months looking to find anyone else, and no one would take that job because, you know, it's in the telecommunications industry, which is highly regulated, and international phone calls we…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silverman: Automation will increase consumer desire for custom, creative goods
“In a world that's becoming ever more commoditized, and where automation is changing the nature of work, creativity can't be automated. And we're going to yearn more and more for something made just for us.”
Assertion Partly supported
Silverman: Pivoting Skype to video calling dramatically altered its growth curve
“Pivoting Skype from audio calls to video calls was probably the most powerful way to drive engagement. And so we made video calling the centerpiece of Skype for that out, changed Skype's brand, really, and mission to be about video. Shipped an amazing product …”
Assertion Supported
Silverman: Four million sellers rely on Etsy daily for their livelihoods
“Four million sellers count on Etsy every day to feed their families and to connect with community.”
Assertion Supported
Silverman: Etsy uses 10-person squads focused on a single customer metric
“At Etsy, the way we do it is we're organized in squads. The unit of work at Etsy is a squad. A squad is about 10 people, six engineers, a designer, a product manager, an analyst, roughly. And they're given one customer problem to fix and one metric of success.”
Assertion Supported
Silverman: Etsy squads ship at least two to three experiments monthly
“Typically, a squad is going to ship two or three experiments a month at least.”