The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ross: Norway could match total US energy output via wind and hydro
“Norway has about an 80% utilization rate of wind. So, like, 80% of the time you can be generating energy. They have enough hydro that if you deployed an five x the wind power of the hydro, Norway itself could provide as much energy as the United States and cou…”
Ross: US nuclear power permitting costs triple actual construction costs
“He said they spend three times as much on the permitting in the United States than on the nuclear power plant.”
Ross: NVIDIA holds a cornered resource as HBM monopsony buyer
“You don't normally think of tech companies as having a cornered resource, but Nvidia has a cornered resource. They're a monopsony, the opposite of a monopoly, a single buyer for HBM, and the Interposer, the COOS.”
Ross: Industrial generators currently face a 90-month lead time
“There's a 90 month lead time on generators right now”
Ross: DeepSeek restricted signups due to a shortage of inference compute
“So, they ran out of compute, and this is why, this is the other reason why chip startups are gonna do just fine, because they ran out of inference compute.”
Ross: Worldwide data center capacity is currently 15 gigawatts
“I am aware of about 20 gigawatts of power that people want to make available for data centers now. Right now there's about 15 gigawatts of data centers worldwide, so more than double the current capacity.”
Ross: Compute costs dropped 1,000x per decade while spending rose 100x
“So for the last five to six decades, like clockwork, once a decade, the cost of compute has gone down a thousand X. People buy 100,000 X as much compute spending a hundred times as much. So every decade they spend a hundred times as much. So you make it cheape…”