The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 45 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ross: Nvidia will be worth $10 trillion in five years
“I personally would be surprised if in five years NVIDIA wasn't worth 10 trillion, but I can't predict the outcome.”
Ross: Total AI ROI will exceed capital invested despite individual failures
“Right now, people are making more money than they're spending. It's just very lumpy. As an aggregate. Plenty of people are gonna lose their shirts, but overall, less money is gonna go in than is gonna come out.”
Ross: Europe will become a tourist economy without rapid AI energy expansion
“Then Europe's economy is going to be a tourist economy. People are going to come here to see the quaint old buildings, and that's going to be it.”
Jonathan Ross: AI will cause massive labor shortages, not mass unemployment
“I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. Yeah, I don't think we're gonna have enough people to fill all the jobs that are gonna be created.”
Ross: Groq plans to serve 50% of global AI inference by 2027
“And our goal by the end of 20, 27 is to be providing at least half of the world's AI inference compute.”
Ross: OpenAI will lose the closed model battle and should open source
“I can't speak for Sam Altman or OpenAI, but if I was in that position, I would be gearing up to open source my models in response. Because it's pretty clear you're gonna lose that, so you might as well try and win all the users and the love from open sourcing.”
Ross: CCP will pressure DeepSeek to harvest user data
“The CCP is probably going to be taking the safeties off the weapons. They're going to be like, why are you making this model open source? Please direct your data towards us. Go win a bunch of customers this way, but now we want the data, right? And so they're …”
Ross: AI Competitors Will Set Aside Morals to Win
“And I think that's going to happen. I think people will like you cannot lose.”
Ross: OpenAI, Anthropic, and all hyperscalers will build custom chips
“I have no doubt that OpenAI will be able to build its own chips. I have no doubt that eventually, Anthropic will be building their own chips, that every hyperscaler will build their own chip.”
Ross: NVIDIA will keep selling chips despite AI labs building custom silicon
“NVIDIA still keeps selling chips.”
Ross: China will build 150 nuclear reactors to power domestic AI compute
“They're going to build a 150 nuclear reactors. So they're going to have enough energy, even though their chips aren't as energy efficient.”
Ross: US will maintain AI hardware advantage over China for 2-3 years
“So my expectation is that right now for the next two to three years, the United States has a clear advantage in that away game over China.”
Ross: NVIDIA Will Sell Every Single GPU It Builds
“NVIDIA's gonna sell every single GPU that they build.”
Ross: AI deflation will lead to earlier retirement and shorter workweeks
“And what that means is people will need to work less. And that's gonna lead you to number two, which is people are gonna opt out of the economy more. They're gonna work fewer hours, they're gonna work fewer days a week, and they're gonna work fewer years. They…”
Ross: Coding will become a required skill for non-technical roles like marketing
“And coding is gonna become the same thing. For you to be in marketing, you're gonna have to be able to code. For you to be in customer service, you're gonna have to be code be able to code.”
Ross: Groq will drive cash flow via volume while minimizing margins
“I want my margin to be as low as I possibly can make it while keeping my business stable, and I'm going to make my cash flow by increasing the volume.”
Ross: NVIDIA will retain 50%+ revenue share with 10% chip volume
“My prediction is that in five years, NVIDIA will still have over 50% of the revenue. However, they will have a minority of the chips sold. They might have, you know, minority share. They might have 51% of the revenue, and they might have 10% of the chips sold.”
Ross: Deploying Cheaper Inference Chips Will Fuel More AI Training
“I think if we were to deploy a lot of much lower cost inference chips what you would see is that same number of GPUs would be sold, but the demand for training would increase because the more inference you have, the more training you need, and vice versa.”
Ross: Power will become a hard bottleneck for AI in 3-4 years
“That power will become a hard bottleneck in three to four years.”
Ross: Most newly announced speculative data center projects will never be built
“Most of these projects will never be developed.”
Ross: Total AI Industry Returns Will Exceed Capital Invested Despite Mass Losses
“I can guarantee you that a huge amount of money will be incinerated. But I also bet that in total more money will be made than will be put in.”
Ross: Groq will not train proprietary AI models to avoid competing with clients
“We have decided that we're not going to train our own models. We'll do a little fine tuning for specific cases or whatnot, but we don't want to compete.”
Ross: Global power limits will block Chinese AI chip exports
“If they want to go out into the world and deploy chips like they did with Huawei and networking gear, that's going to be complicated because people aren't going to have the power around the world to run more expensive accelerators.”
Ross: Effective agentic AI requires solving hallucinations first
“I think agentic comes after you solve the hallucination problem because otherwise you've got these long chains where you can introduce hallucinations. It'll kind of work, but it'll work much better after.”
Ross: Meta Will Not Scrape OpenAI Data Like DeepSeek Did
“The question is, are they willing to scrape open AI like DeepSeek did? And I don't think they are. I, they've been super careful on everything that they've been doing.”
Ross: Perplexity Is Perfectly Positioned as AI Hallucination Rates Drop
“So when I look at perplexity as being perfectly positioned for the moment that the hallucination or really confabulation rate comes down because the moment that these models get good enough where you don't have to check the citations anymore, that's going to o…”
Ross: OpenAI will have a much stronger brand in three years
“Much stronger. I think they're going to double down on that, and they're going to focus on it.”
Ross: Saudi Arabia will build 4 gigawatts of data center power
“They're going to build out three to four gigawatts in the very near future.”
Ross: OpenAI is highly unlikely to fail or go away
“At this point, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where OpenAI goes away. I just, I don't see how that happens.”
Ross: Groq Will Never Create Its Own AI Models
“In our case we found an area where we will not compete with our customers, which is we will not create our own models. So we just won't do it.”
Jonathan Ross: Groq aims to reach over 2 million chips in 2025
“This year we want to be at over two million, and next year the number is much, much, much larger.”
Ross: Groq will need nearly entire fab capacity next year
“For us to hit our numbers next year, which I'm not sharing publicly, we're going to gonna need almost all of the capacity of the fab that we're using.”
Ross: AI will exacerbate society's loss of drive and agency
“And so we have this sort of financial diabetes as a society, and I think it's going to get worse with AI.”
Ross: AI could deliver longevity breakthrough within 10 years
“Belief is that if it is possible to significantly slow or stop aging, I think that you will have a Manjaro moment in maybe the next 10 years.”
Ross: DeepSeek R1 won't be talked about in six months
“Are we going to be talking about DeepSeq for the next six, or R-one for the next six months? And the answer is absolutely not.”
Ross: The entire AI industry will shift to Mixture of Experts architecture
“What you're going to see is everyone else starting to use this MOE approach.”
Ross: AI companies will use massive GPU clusters to generate synthetic data
“What you're going to see now is now that everyone has seen this deep seek architecture, they're going to go great. I have hundreds of thousands of GPUs. I'm now going to use a lot of them to create a lot of synthetic data. And then I'm going to train the bejes…”
Ross: Generative AI disruption will happen faster than future tech waves
“The generative age, we're gonna speed run it faster than whatever comes next, because we know what it looks like.”
Ross: Software creation will shift to non-coding prompt engineers
“Now you're not going to have to implement things. You're going to be able to prompt engineer your way through things just as we moved from hardware engineers to software engineers and sped up productivity, right? You're now just going to be able to have a prom…”
Ross: Shipping features during customer meetings will win deals against competitors
“Qualitatively, when you can do that before the customer meeting is over, you're gonna be able to win deals that your competitors won't.”
Ross: Groq plans to upgrade its AI chips annually
“We're looking at upgrading chips about once a year.”
Ross: Prompt engineering will unlock 1.4 billion potential African entrepreneurs
“I think prompt engineering is going to unlock a huge swath of human society. There's 1.4000000000 people in Africa who know how to speak, and if you were to give them access to a tool that They could create applications live just by speaking to it. That would …”
Ross: OpenAI's unmatched brand power will sustain them long-term
“They've got amazing brand power, like no, no one else in this space, and that's gonna serve them for a really long time, right?”
Ross: As AI software creation becomes trivial, craftsmanship will command value
“And so what you're going to see now is because it's so easy to come up with something that just kind of works. It's a little embarrassing, but it kind of works. People are really going to value well-crafted, high quality, products.”