why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Monegro: Most value in crypto will accrue to network governance
“I believe that governance is where most of the value is going to accrue in crypto at the end of the day, precisely because of what Kyle pointed out, features, functionality can be copied, and the thing that you can't copy is a community, and the thing that Kee…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Monegro: Buying Bitcoin directly outperformed USV's early-stage crypto equity investments
“I calculated how much better or worse an investment it would have been to just buy Bitcoin and buy the same amount of dollars worth of Bitcoin, and found that Bitcoin would have been a much better investment”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Monegro: Crypto will commoditize major web incumbents over the long term
“And so now the value in crypto is no longer in the data itself, and ultimately that's for the long term, that's what's going to commoditize the web incumbents that we have today.”
Insight
Monegro: Liquid fund structures force crypto managers to sell during market downturns
“A frenzy where there will be massive rises and massive falls, and when you have a more liquid fund structure, that can end up screwing you in interesting ways. If you're now bound by the whips of the market, if your investors can pull out of the fund because i…”
Insight
Monegro: Crypto networks cannot win long-term on software features alone
“Features can be copied, and you can't win in this market solely on the basis of features.”
Opinion
Monegro: Investing directly in crypto assets beats traditional startup equity
“We bonded over our shared belief that the most interesting place to invest in was in the assets themselves and the crypto assets that were being created with blockchains as opposed to companies.”
Insight
Monegro: Traditional VCs must hire crypto specialists or fall behind
“And so for existing VCs that are moving into a space, they either have to recruit people that are going to spend all of their time in this market learning about this market, or they're going to have a tough time catching up.”
Assertion Partly supported
Monegro: ICO fever diminished in 2018 due to regulatory interest
“I think we've seen ICOs or ICO fever really diminish as the year has gone by. I think we're getting to a healthier place, and largely due to the increased interest from regulators in the space. I think that's been very positive.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Monegro: Big Tech will not be affected by crypto in short term
“So the companies that I mentioned, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, they're incredible. And will continue to be for quite some time. It's not like they're going to be affected by the rise of crypto in the short term.”
Prediction Held up
Monegro: Regulatory clarity is required before institutional capital enters crypto
“I think we're going to see more of those this year, but ultimately, I think that before Before institutional capital can really rush in, we're going to need more clarity from the regulatory side.”
Disclosure
Monegro: Placeholder is prioritizing crypto infrastructure investments over application layers
“We focus on our thesis, so we believe that we're at a stage now where infrastructure is particularly important because there's a lot of building blocks for Crypto applications that don't exist yet, and so things like file storage and networking and things like…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Monegro: Steem's early token crash was driven by excessive inflation
“When they started out, they had an economic model that created a bit of a bubble and then that crashed pretty quickly because they had an inflation rate that was way too high.”