The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Seibert: Secondary market data shows startups trading down 80%
“I do get data from the secondary markets, and so I can see with some of them like where they're trading versus where their last preferred round was, and it's a bloodbath. It's like down 80% for many of them.”
Seibert finds secondary pre-IPO share sales more lucrative than post-IPO exits
“I've actually had more success selling on the secondary market pre IPO than I have had actually waiting the whole time.”
Seibert: Most angel-stage AI deals are thin OpenAI wrappers
“Most of what I'm seeing on the angel side right now are these very thin wrappers on top of open AI.”
Seibert: 30 of my 97 angel investments have failed outright since 2014
“So since 2014, I have angel invested in 97 startups. And I just did the count so far, 30 have failed outright. So about a third, another 19 are still at one X. So basically haven't gone anywhere. And if you look at the overall portfolio, really, it's like 10 o…”
Seibert exited his $10k Alchemy investment at a 200x return
“A college friend of mine was prototyping what was gonna be a new teenage social network, and I invested 10 K. I was like, the guy's smart. Let's see what happens. He eventually pivoted that into down to lunch, which did well for a bit and then failed, unfortun…”
Seibert's early IPO investments crashed near zero during six-month lockups
“A couple of my early investments went on to IPO. And so we're extremely successful, but then during the six month lockup window went almost to zero. And I couldn't exit almost anything.”
Seibert's single 200x win paid for all his other angel investments
“Yes. So that is why on paper and like, and in terms of cash returned, I'm actually in pretty good shape, but yeah, it's remarkable how, how the outliers sort of outclass the rest.”
Seibert: Useful AI arrived much faster than previously expected
“12 months ago, I thought useful AI would be years away. No longer think that.”
Seibert: Two oversized angel investments I felt certain about went to zero
“So on two of them, actually two of my biggest failures, I was so convinced. I was like, this is a no brainer. This is going to be a huge home run. I'm going to put in way more than I usually do. Usually I try to stay pretty disciplined on check size and both o…”