why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
One-third of Basecamp employees quit within two weeks of political talk ban
“Ultimately about a third of the company quit in a matter of is it a week or two.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Basecamp is in a significantly better place following its political discussion ban
“I can tell you the company's in a significantly better place.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Basecamp will not pursue growth at the expense of profitability
“I don't want to be bigger and have much lower margins. I don't want to be bigger and lose money per customer. I don't want to be bigger and have to take a bunch of money to support that growth.”
Assertion Supported
Basecamp grew to its largest headcount ever following the 2021 staff walkout
“We, we've actually grown significantly bigger than we've ever been. So we rehired a bunch of people and then have hired more since. At the time that happened, we were about 60, now we're about 80, biggest we've ever been.”
Assertion Supported
Jeff Bezos bought Basecamp shares directly from founders, not as primary capital
“So Jeff Bezos bought a small piece of my shares and David shares. None of his money went into the business. The money went into my bank account and David's bank account.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2033
Jason Fried predicts he will leave Basecamp within ten years
“I'm certain I'm not here in 10 years but I don't know where I will be.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Jason Fried vows to never start another company that has employees
“I'm certain actually not don't think I would never start another company with employees. I don't want to feel what I don't want to feel anymore is responsible for anybody else.”
Prediction Held up
Unprofitable SaaS companies face deep cuts as venture funding dries up
“If a company can't make its own money, they require outside money. Outside money dries up. Things have to change. I mean, there's gonna have to be late. There already is. It's not like this is news, but layoffs, deep cuts, some austerity measures. You know, th…”
Assertion Supported
37signals has been profitable every single year for 23 years
“We've been profitable for 23 years, every year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fried pledges never to make bet-the-company decisions
“I don't do anything that could end me. I would never bet the company on something. I would never Bet the farm on something.”
Assertion Partly supported
Warren Buffett keeps an open schedule and books meetings one day ahead
“If you ever want to meet with Warren Buffett, what his secretary will tell you, call the day before and ask. So Warren Buffett's schedule is open. I mean, certainly there's a few things on his schedule that he has to plan, but for the most part, it's totally o…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fried works strict eight-hour days and wraps up by 5:30 PM
“I work eight hour a day. I'm done at five, five 30 roughly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
37Signals did not formally incorporate or consult lawyers initially
“You know, we didn't, like, incorporate it. We didn't, like, call a lawyer. We didn't do anything official. We just said, like, let's sit together and see if we can land some business and go from there.”
Assertion Supported
Basecamp's team of 60 in 2021 was its largest ever
“Managing 60 people is just hard. This is the biggest we've ever been.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Basecamp surpassed 37signals' agency revenue within a year of launch
“Put some prices on it, put it out in the market in February of 2004. And about a year later or so, it was doing more, generating more revenue for us than our website design business.”