The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 40 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Reses: No Current Crypto Use Case Has Proven Market Longevity
“I don't think we're there yet on any use case, frankly. That I think will have longevity in the market, but I do think the underlying technology is super important to experiment with and to explore new ways of building financial rails”
Reses: Super Apps Are a Myth Except for Outliers Like Cash App
“And so, I don't see a broad market for super apps. I think there are a few players out there who have shown that they could build multiple use cases around their product. Again, I got to go back to Square because I know it so well. Cash App is, to me, the most…”
Reses: Raw Intelligence and Grit Beat Domain Knowledge for Novel Products
“I would rather focus on things like raw intelligence, judgment, curiosity, grit, ability to manage ambiguity, rather than looking for things like domain knowledge or operators with prior scale experience, you know, that's another big mistake where you assume b…”
Reses: Yahoo Earned $50 Billion Through Renegotiated Alibaba Deal
“It probably generated fifty billion dollars worth of economics to Yahoo shareholders”
Reses: Next Decade of Fintech Winners Will Focus on Expense Management
“And so, I see the next 10 years of interesting companies being developed around expenses, expense management, and then infrastructure as the second component.”
Reses: Lead Bank Is a Net Beneficiary of Crypto Market Scrutiny
“There are some components for us as a bank that are also interesting because we understand how to assess risk in the crypto market, and we have been able to onboard those crypto companies that are super high quality companies that are getting unbanked by those…”
Reses: Feature-Based Consumer Fintechs Will Disappear Over Time
“And so I do think there are many consumer fintechs where I just don't see the differentiation in the product to truly stand the time or their features. They're not companies. And they should be integrated into other products that can help build LTV. Cause I do…”
Reses: Partner Banking Is an Anti-Network Effects Business Due to Regulatory Risk
“Any of our customers can harm another customer because regulators look at our customer base and can make decisions about the overall company that if we are not in compliance, they could limit how we operate, and I think you've seen that with some of the banks …”
Reses: SVB made a critical error by announcing an unclosed capital raise
“They should have raised the money. Made the announcement that they raised the money and that they were in great position. And so that dynamic and the advice they were getting in that situation, very unusual.”
Reses: Startups made major mistakes concentrating all capital at SVB
“A lot of companies made a lot of mistakes about their own assessment of risk. In addition to just, you know, the powder keg that happened the moment people realized that SVB might be a challenge.”
Reses: Banks with concentrated customer bases will face panic deposit withdrawals
“And I do think those banks will start to see deposit pulls just out of panic, even if they have a very strong balance sheet.”
Reses: Private Equity Is Fundamentally About Talent Judgment and HR
“If you really abstract what private equity is judgments about people, where you need to place them in their jobs, and what levers of growth you give them in order to help them grow a business. That is recruiting, and that is leadership, and that is HR.”
Reses: Underdog Company Alumni Make Grittier Hires Than Top-Tier Tech Employees
“Anyone who went to Yahoo was grittier than a lot of the people who worked at higher profile companies that were just minting money, and when you came to Yahoo, you had to work a little harder, and so I find places like that are incredible places to go higher, …”
Reses: Coatue Excels at Risk Management by Avoiding Emotional Attachments
“Kotu is an investor of mine, and I look at Philippe LaFont, Thomas LaFont, and the way that Kotu manages risk, and I am mesmerized by their ability to understand market dynamics and react to it in really smart ways. They aren't enamored by the companies that t…”
Reses: Incumbent Banks Focused Only on Cash Flow Will Fail
“If they decide that they just want to manage their business for cash flow, they will die a long-term death.”
Reses: Equating Power With Headcount Growth Is a Cancer on Innovation
“This idea that you need to, like, keep growing teams in order to become more powerful in a company is like a culture killer on invention. You could have people who are incredible, who are just incredible operators in their own, and they need to be rewarded as …”
Reses: The Federal Reserve Has Done a Great Job Learning Crypto
“And so I have seen in the last few years a willingness to dig into crypto in a way that is profoundly different than in the past, where regulators might have had a more limited interaction with companies. I think they truly understood that they needed to under…”
Reses: BaaS Middleware Providers Are Suboptimal for Scaled Fintechs
“And I think those companies are fundamentally in a middle spot. They're not the final decision maker of a bank. And so if you're a scaled fintech, that's not an optimal place to be. From who you want to work with, because you can't actually control the decisio…”
Reses: Regulators will pull out all stops for weekend SVB deal
“The regulators are highly incented to get a buyer for this business this weekend, and so going back to oh eight, as the example, they're, they will pull out all the stops in order to get it to the Likely and best outcome possible for American insurers.”
Reses: Founders should transfer funds to systemically important banks
“If it were me, I would be moving money to Citigroup, JP Morgan, Truist, you know, those kinds of companies, you know, but that's me personally.”
Reses: Evaluate High Performers by Outcomes Driven, Not Work Activities
“I think there can be a bunch of different dimensions around that where people have incredible raw intelligence and they're able to actually create outcomes that matter and make a difference to a company. And so I focus on not the work they're doing, but the ou…”
Reses: Founders Must Prevent Employee Entitlements Starting With First 20 Hires
“You have to set up a culture where you don't build entitlements into the way that you operate, and I think that's really important from the first 20 people that you hire to lay out the foundations for the focus, the intensity, and the inspiration of what you'r…”
Reses: Square Mobilized Entire Workforce as 24/7 PPP Loan Reviewers During COVID
“We developed PPP, this is at Square, in a crisis. And we ended up with a core team of people working on it, and then we literally got the entire company of Square to volunteer for us to be, you know, loan reviewers twenty-four-seven during that period of time,…”
Reses: Take a 20-Year View on Employees' Careers to Build Loyalty
“I focus on the long game with people. I really care about their career, and it could be someone who is multiple levels down for me. I don't care. If I've built a relationship with someone and I want to help them, you know, I will take a 20 year view of how to …”
Reses: Self-Funding Lead Bank Provided Maximum Leverage Over Outside Investors
“We had a lot of leverage when setting up this company because I was also willing to fund it myself. And the only reason I was taking folks was because I wanted their brain.”
Reses: Regulatory Approval and Speed Took Priority Over Valuation at Lead Bank
“When we set the terms for our investing rounds, I was very comfortable letting our investors get a lot of their way on a lot of different components of the transaction because I knew I needed certain things. I needed a structure that was appropriate for a bank…”
Reses: Square Built Products Directly Inspired by Alipay's Capabilities
“We drew a lot of inspiration from that in what we built at Square, Because we had seen what was being built at Alipay with firsthand insight, and were able to look at that and draw inspiration from it.”
Reses: Most Investors Are Great at Buying but Terrible at Selling
“People usually are great at investing and terrible at selling, And I think I'm guilty of that myself.”
Reses: Wave of Fintech Market Rationalization Is Coming for Weak Startups
“And given the increase in funding that happened, I think there's a 10 X increase in funding over the last few years, you will see the rationalizing of this market with companies that just haven't achieved product market fit.”
Reses: Dorsey Locked Himself in Square's Office to Build Bitcoin Integration
“I remember in 2017, maybe, yeah, it was end of 20 16 when Jack wanted to put Bitcoin into Cash App. And he, ah, two engineers sat, ah, on the sixth floor of 14 55 market and wouldn't leave the office until they were able to build that product.”
Reses: US Macroeconomic Environment Will Improve by End of 2024
“By the end of 2024, I think we'll be in a better place.”
Reses pulled Apax credit lines from her hospital bed during 2008 crisis
“I recall 2008 My third child was born October second, 2008. And there was a bank that was failing in Europe. And I remember I was the only partner. This was at apex partners. I was the only partner in the United States that could actually pull credit lines in …”
Reses: VCs will start requiring treasury controls and multi-bank strategies from startups
“I think it'll change the dynamic for how people manage their deposits going forward. Like I would not be surprised going forward if when a venture backed company raises money that VCs don't demand that they take controls over where they put their funding, how …”
Reses: Depositors will shift capital to systemically important and regional banks
“I mean, I do think you'll see an orientation towards de-risking your deposit base and trying to orient towards systemically important banks or big regional banks like a PNC, and I do think that, that people will be oriented.”
Reses: Square was the only tech company to build a bank
“And so, you know, and we built a bank at Square. We were the only tech company to ever have built a bank, right?”
Reses: Only 2% of SVB depositors were under $250k limit
“SVB also was uniquely concentrated in terms of larger deposits. I think only two percent of their depositors were below the 250,000 amount per account. The rest were above.”
Reses: Despite a Career in Finance, I Am Terrible at Mental Math
“In reality, I'm terrible at like accounting and math on the fly. I can't do it in my head.”
Reses: SVB staff signed four-week contracts with FDIC
“So in the case of SVB, for example, the team at SVB has signed four-week contracts with the FDIC.”