The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Walk: Overcapitalized startups face silent disappearance, low-value acquihires, or noisy collapse
“And so I think for most of those companies, layoffs are going to turn into silent disappearance low value acquihires or noisy collapses.”
Walk: Homebrew never missed an outlier investment due to consensus rules
“We look back And we've struggled over 10 years to find an occasion where lack of, you know, if there was lack of consensus, it meant we didn't do the deal. And I don't think we have any, you know, quote unquote outliers that were, you know, false negatives bec…”
Hunter Walk: All Homebrew startups hitting milestones raised Series A
“And what I'll say, at least through first fund and, you know, starting to get halfway through our second fund, is when we and our founders agree on those milestones and they hit those milestones, none of them have had problems raising an A round.”
Walk: Homebrew only raised capital from LPs supportive of equal partnerships
“The LPs we ended up with were all LPs who were excited about equal partnerships. The ones who passed on us were ones that wanted a single key mat, like this notion of, well, it's great to have multiple GPs, but at funds under a hundred million dollars, we real…”
Walk: Homebrew launched with explicit commitment to no firm growth or succession
“We also started with the idea of no succession plan, no growth.”
Walk: Homebrew took less allocation than offered in 10 of 11 deals
“In 10 of the 11 investments that we made last year, we were offered more allocation than we took, because what we care about is really sort of working with great founders and great co-investors.”
Walk: Downturn will worsen for Series A-D startups lacking investability
“I think it'll get worse for series A through D companies that can't remain, you know, sort of like default investable.”
Walk: Venture slowdown will benefit early product-market fit startups
“And so in some ways, I think part of our portfolio that's really going to benefit from the slowdown Are the early product market fit, you know, companies that now have some capital in the bank, but don't have to, aren't getting the crossover investors, pitchin…”
Walk: Homebrew will cap at five or six funds, avoiding intergenerational scale
“We want to stay focused on early stage companies that we can put not just capital, but time behind. So it means a relatively concentrated investment philosophy. And, you know, we want our legacy to be the companies that we worked with over five or six funds, n…”