The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marks: A period of market distress will occur by 2025
“The bull market is 11 years old. If there's not one in the next five years, that means we'll have gone 16, which would be a record by a wide margin. So my guess is that in the next five years, we'll have a period of distress, and my hope is that Oak Tree will …”
Marks: COVID-19 downturn is not driven by a credit bubble
“This time around, we are not coming off a bubble. The banks are much less leveraged. And there's no analog as deficient in substance as the subprime mortgage.”
Marks: The US ran a $1T deficit during prosperity due to 2017 tax bill
“And thanks to the Trump tax bill that was signed in December of 17, we were already running a trillion dollar deficit in times of prosperity.”
Marks: The market is in an advanced, elevated cycle stage
“I do think that we are in the upper advancing part of the cycle. You know, we've been in, it's been a long economic expansion, a long bull market, in both cases, the longest in history. Valuations of stocks are higher than usual. Interest rates and yield sprea…”
Marks: Oaktree's distressed debt returns won't match past crisis levels
“We think our returns will be very attractive relative to the low overall level of interest rates, but nothing like in the past.”
Marks: Fed will not raise rates until inflation exceeds 2%
“Until we get, you know, growth above two and a half or three, and until, certainly until we get inflation above two percent, I don't think you'll be seeing any increases in Fed funds rate coming from the central bank.”
Howard Marks: Post-2008 recovery was slowest in post-war history
“But our government's been running deficits since the global financial crisis, And this was the slowest recovery in post-war history, and it didn't kindle any inflation.”
Howard Marks: US unemployment hit 50-year low without driving inflation
“And, you know, as of January, the unemployment rate in this country was three and a half percent, the lowest in 50 years, and still no inflation.”
Marks: US Public Market Valuations Dropped 35% Before Private Markets Adjusted
“In the US, we have had that effect. As before today, I don't know where the market closed today, but it was up substantially, like, eight or so percent when I last looked. Before today, I think the market was down about 35%, so I wouldn't agree with your premi…”
Marks: Historical average P/E is 16 versus 26-27 in 2021
“So when you look and you see that the average P.E. Ratio in the post-war period has been 16, and today we're in the 26 or seven region.”
Marks: Supposedly invincible Nifty 50 giants eventually collapsed or lost dominance
“Kodak and Polaroid lost their market. IBM and Xerox got killed by competitors. AIG went bankrupt in the global financial crisis.”
Marks: US interest rates at 1.5% limited Fed rate cut capacity entering COVID
“Well, the problem is that in this instance, the interest rates at the beginning of the problem were one and a half percent. So clearly if it's one and a half, you can't cut by five.”