The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marks: A period of market distress will occur by 2025
“The bull market is 11 years old. If there's not one in the next five years, that means we'll have gone 16, which would be a record by a wide margin. So my guess is that in the next five years, we'll have a period of distress, and my hope is that Oak Tree will …”
Marks: United States national debt will never be repaid
“So the point is we're going to be going through the next years saddled with an enormous national debt that we'll never repay.”
Marks: Swift Government Actions Significantly Reduced Risk of a Global Depression
“My partner, Bruce Garsh, and I, talking, I would say, middle of last week, were afraid of a meaningful probability of a depression, with millions losing their jobs and businesses shuttered for long periods of time. Now, I think, with the government having done…”
Howard Marks: Europe Will Outperform US in Navigating COVID Crisis
“The U.S. Has a better underlying rate of growth and more economic vitality. On the other hand, I think that the U.S. Lacks the national leadership, which might be required to get us through this. My guess is that the, well, in this little instance here, I'm go…”
Howard Marks: Strong economic recovery will follow COVID-19 herd immunity
“I personally believe that when we get to herd immunity, And when the number of cases falls, you know, radically, by which I mean, I guess, you know, a few hundred a day or so, I think that we'll have a very good recovery in the economy and in employment.”
Marks: Oaktree's distressed debt returns won't match past crisis levels
“We think our returns will be very attractive relative to the low overall level of interest rates, but nothing like in the past.”
Marks: Fed will not raise rates until inflation exceeds 2%
“Until we get, you know, growth above two and a half or three, and until, certainly until we get inflation above two percent, I don't think you'll be seeing any increases in Fed funds rate coming from the central bank.”