The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Howard Marks: Waiting for market bottoms is cover for inaction
“Oak Tree rejects the concept of waiting for the bottom. It's impossible, intellectually, to know when you're at the bottom. And I think that terms like, don't catch a falling knife, and wait for the bottom, are cover for inaction during crisis.”
Marks: Record-low interest rates justify historical peak stock P/E ratios
“The lower the interest rates, the higher the asset price is justified. We have the lowest interest rates in history. That justifies, for example, the highest P.E. Ratios in history.”
Howard Marks: Market bargains vanish once uncertainty is resolved
“It is my opinion that when the knife is falling, it's terrifying. Buyers get great value. And when the knife stops falling and the dust settles and the uncertainty is resolved, the bargains are gone.”
Howard Marks: Macro predictions shouldn't drive investment decisions
“Macro predictions are very hard to make, and I don't think either of us bases our investment decisions on macro forecasts. That's not a way to have a good batting average.”
Marks: Market trouble occurs when investors believe no price too high
“When people start saying no price too high, then the world tends to get in trouble, as they have several times in my life.”
Howard Marks: Above-Average Returns Require Resisting Crowd Psychology
“What that means, Harry, is that if you operate emotionally or psychologically, like the average person, you will have average results, which for the most part means buying high and selling low. In order to be an above average investor among all the various req…”
Howard Marks: Successful Investing Requires Operating Without Foreknowledge
“The important misconception is always the same, which is that it's possible sitting here to know what the future holds. We have to invest despite the absence of foreknowledge, not in reliance of foreknowledge.”
Marks: Asset prices reflect fundamentals combined with investor optimism
“If I could know only one thing, I would think I'd want to know how much optimism there is in the price. You know, prices are not the result of investment fundamentals. They're a result of the combination of fundamentals and psychology. And, you know, the highe…”
Marks: Investors should be aggressive when others are terrified
“When others are fearless and risk oblivious and aggressive, we should be terrified. When others are terrified, we should be aggressive.”
Marks: Rising inflation forces markets to demand positive real interest rates
“If you get inflation at three percent a year, nobody wants to lend money out at one percent a year, because what they're doing is locking in a two percent a year loss of purchasing power. And the market would demand positive real rates.”
Marks: Outsized returns come from doing what other investors refuse to do
“You make the big money when you do the things that other people are unwilling to do.”
Howard Marks: Investors cannot predict direction, but must know cycle positioning
“We don't know where we're going, but we should know where we are.”
Marks: Risk positioning should be a speedometer, not a binary choice
“Now, people always wanted me to say, buy or sell, in or out, and those judgments are too black and white. It should be more nuanced. Where on the speedometer between zero and a hundred should you be today?”