why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Source code will become irrelevant as AI prompts replace programming, predicts Simionato
“But I think the code will become irrelevant, but I'm biased. I'm a PM. So I care about the prompt and the result. But I think that ultimately what you want to do is to deliver a great UX by giving the right commands.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neuralink will transform the world more than AI over 50 years
“I think Neuralink is the product, like the thing that can change the world the most in 50 years, including AI, in my opinion. So I know people love AI, I love AI, I use it every day, but I think that ultimately the way you perceive reality and the way it chang…”
Assertion Supported
Evernote's 2023 price hike caused its largest subscription churn event
“The thing we did on Evernote that produced the biggest churn was when we raised prices in 23, which is something that we thoroughly analyzed, and we ultimately made the decision to do it nonetheless.”
Assertion Supported
Evernote's headcount dropped from hundreds to under 100 after Bending Spoons acquisition
“Evernote was a few hundred people and now it's less than a hundred.”
Assertion Supported
Bending Spoons monetizes WeTransfer by paywalling expired file recovery
“On WeTransfer, we built a feature that allows you to recover expired transfers, which wasn't available before. We noticed that many people were hitting this page where basically would tell you the transfer has expired. You cannot download anymore because of co…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Product designers will abandon static pixels to design directly in code
“I think so, to be honest. I think that the role of a designer will be as important as it is today, maybe even more, but I think that the tools that we use will evolve. And so you won't work on pixels and then code, but you will likely merge the two things.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Simionato: AI tools will enable product teams to test 3-5x more ideas
“So today we have a backlog of a hundred ideas and we know that we can only try 10 of them in a few months. You know, I think that we'll reach a point where we can actually try 2030, 40, 50. Both because people will be faster, but also because the manual work t…”
Prediction Partly held up
Bending Spoons will announce Evernote V-Eleven with new AI features next week
“Next week, we are announcing Evernote V-Eleven, and it's going to be a significant change compared to what Evernote is today. It's mostly a reflection of all the work that went through in the last three years, but it's also containing three advanced AI feature…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simionato: WeTransfer's overall product complexity equals one Evernote feature
“WeTransfer, in terms of complexity, could be one feature of Evernote, and Evernote has, like, literally hundreds of features.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bending Spoons' legacy app 30 Day Fitness still generates millions annually
“I'm not sure what it makes today. I think it's still in the several millions a year.”
Assertion Supported
Bending Spoons' HQ Trivia clone reached 2 million registered users in Italy
“We, the two million registered users in Italy Only. Italy is, is sixty million people in total. So one in 30 people used to play that game.”
Assertion Supported
Bending Spoons made Evernote offline note access free for all users
“Offline is a big one, like offline availability of notes and notebooks used to be a premium feature and now it's free.”