The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Randle: OpenAI could raise at a $1T valuation next year
“I think it'll be a trillion dollar company next year. Yes. I think they could probably raise at the end of the year. Ah, you know, end of the year Q two, I think open AI could raise it a trillion dollars. No problem.”
Randle: CoreWeave and AI cloud providers will eventually crash 70%
“I think at some point, like they'll probably, you know, Corweave and all these things will probably go down like 70%.”
Randle predicts SpaceX stock price will be lower in six months
“I would personally probably take the under in six months, not because I don't think that the company is going to be valued extremely well... But if I had to go over under, I'd go under from six months from now.”
Randle: ChatGPT will be the dominant consumer app for 5 years
“Like there's just no way that it's not going to be the most important kind of consumer destination over the next five years and consumer app over the next five years.”
Randle: Code generation market will add $4B to $5B ARR this year
“Instead of adding, you know, a billion dollars of net new this year, I think code generation is going to add, I don't know, four or five billion dollars of net new across every single product and service that's available for people to buy, both on the B to B a…”
Randle: SaaS business models won't be as relevant over next decade
“And it's such a better intellectual exercise than trying to compare it to SAS, which is just a very, very different business. And it has a very different pricing and business model that, that isn't going to be as relevant, I think over the next 10 years.”
Randle: AI boom will face an inevitable crash before producing massive winners
“Today is very similar in that there's going to be a ton of companies that are pump fakes that do end up going to zero or that go down 90%. But I think it's really important to position yourself so that you can survive the inevitable crash on the other side. An…”
Randle: OpenAI and Google will match Mythos Fable quality within 3-6 months
“When OpenAI or when Google, like, they're going to get to Mythos Fable quality models very soon, within the next three to six months, and then we're going to see.”
Randle: Tiger Global will perform much better than consensus expects
“I think Tiger's gonna end up much better than anyone thought they were going to end up.”
Randle: Benchmark constrains fund sizes to survive downturns and retain LPs
“We're like, let's constrain our fund sizes. Let's be careful about what we do. So we don't get too over our skis, where we can easily weather a crash, and LPs aren't going to go fleeing once there's a crash, because we've been very careful with our capital, an…”