why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Vishria: Nvidia will not remain the only major AI infrastructure player
“I don't believe NVIDIA is going to be the only game to have content infrastructure layer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vishria: AI platform shift could outgrow all previous tech shifts combined
“We have a major, major shift in AI, which could be bigger than any of these other shifts on maybe combined.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vishria: Replacing Developer Labor With AI Creates 20x More Economic Value
“So if the AI, if you can get AI good enough to eat much more of the 200,000 dollars of value attributed to your software engineer, IT person, it just follows that there's like 20 x more value creation and, like, there will be giant, giant outcomes.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vishria: No AI Company Has Yet Demonstrated Software Engineer Replacement
“We're a little ways away from like, from replacing the software engineer right now. We're like a bit away from that. And like, we haven't actually captured that much market value yet. And really no one's demonstrated anything close to that level. Quite yet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vishria: AI monetization won't rely on $20 subscriptions or API calls
“And, like, it's not gonna be a 20 dollar a month subscription, that's not, like, the right way and it's not gonna be just, like, bundled API call, like, it's, there's gonna be much, much more sophistication and interesting models in that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vishria: Early unit economics never extrapolate to $200M revenue scale
“I've worked on five companies that have gone from zero to more than 200 and revenue, and like, in not a single case did the economics at the very early stage, like, extrapolate all the way. Like, it's just not a thing. Not, not even the economics from when the…”
Assertion Contradicted
Only Peter Fenton and Jim Goetz achieved multi-billion consumer and enterprise wins
“That's a funny statement, because I think in the modern era, if you go back, call it the last 10 or 15 years of venture capitalists, there are only two that I can think of who have had multi-billion dollar consumer outcomes and multi-billion dollar enterprise …”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Eric Vishria details Benchmark's unique 1-to-10 investment voting system
“Our voting system is you vote one to 10. You can't vote five. Six and above is yes. Four and below is no.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Vishria: Contentful closed six-figure US deals remotely before hiring in the US
“It's a Berlin-based company at the time, but there wasn't a single employee in the US, and yet they had built this incredible enterprise customer base of US companies, and that's just something that doesn't happen very often at all. You don't see companies clo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vishria: Only sponsoring Benchmark partners see deal vote tallies
“Nobody knows what the votes are except the sponsoring partner.”
Assertion Supported
Vishria: Benchmark always takes a board seat in its investments
“We take the board seat, we aim and aspire to be the entrepreneur's first call. That's a standard we hold ourselves to.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
An infrastructure revolution will power the next wave of consumer platforms
“These things are very cyclical, and again, this is overly simplistic, but I think we're in the midst of a infrastructure revolution. Maybe it's around ML, maybe it's around cloud, maybe it's some combination of these things that are coming together, and there …”
Assertion Supported
Vishria: Benchmark relies on a partner advocacy and voting system for investments
“Our investment process is one of advocacy of voting. So basically, there is an advocate. So one of the five of us falls in love with something, is probably the best way to describe it gets really excited about the entrepreneur and the opportunity All five of u…”