The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eric Paley: Overvalued unicorns face one of three realistic fates
“One of three things are going to happen to those companies, right? They're either going to take the extraordinary amount of cash they got, cut their burn rates down and figure out how to build real companies. And by the way, many of those will still never rais…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 49:57 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Paley: TVPI vs DPI disconnect will be among largest in VC history
“I would bet the last few years will be one of the biggest disconnects between TVPI and DPI for venture funds in venture history.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:14:04 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley predicts many of 2016's unicorns will never justify $1B valuations
“There's over 200 Companies that are considered these unicorns, many of them will probably never live up to their billion dollar valuations, but they've redefined for venture capitalists what their expectations are.”
Eric Paley Nov 23, 2016 ▶ 13:39 20VC: Venture Capital Is One Hell Of A Drug, What VCs Expect From Founders Once They Have Raised & Why Customers Validate Your Business Not Venture Capital with Eric Paley, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: The most valuable company founded in 2023 could be direct-to-consumer
“The most valuable company born in 2023 could very well be in direct to consumer Commerce, because that's not where anyone wants to play right now.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 7:10 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: Many unicorn startups will lose their unicorn valuations
“So I think this, some of this stuff is starting to shift a little bit, largely because so many of these unicorns are going to be, you know, un, unhorned, or whatever the right term is, unwinged, unhorned.”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 45:30 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paley: Founder Collective's 2010 investment SeatGeek will deliver an amazing liquidity event
“Like, SeatGeek was a 2010 investment. I think it's a great company. Dave led that for us. I think it's gonna ultimately have an amazing liquidity event”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:17:56 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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