The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Elad Gil: Stock market must drop to reconcile with economic damage
“Travel is decimated. Restaurants are decimated. And yet the stock markets are slightly down. And so I think all that's going to be reconciled.”
Elad Gil: Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave will trigger new lockdowns
“My belief is that we're going to see a second wave of COVID in the fall, and there will be a subset of states that will lock down and a subset of countries that will again.”
Elad Gil: Summer 2020 will be an economic 'valley of false hope'
“I think May to July or May to August or May to September, something like that is going to be the valley of false hope in some sense, and I hope I'm wrong.”
Elad Gil: The San Francisco Bay Area will remain a tech epicenter
“And I think most people are going to stick around. And I think no matter what, the Bay Area will continue to be a tech epicenter.”
Elad Gil: Most Investors Making Preemptive VC Bets Will Make Costly Mistakes
“I do think a lot of people will be making mistakes on the preemptive side, though, because they're basically investing ahead of time with little data evaluations that aren't merited by the data, and so you either have to be extremely good or extremely lucky, a…”
Elad Gil: Mega funds will drive preemptive rounds and VC defensiveness
“I do think these billion dollar funds will effectively lead to an ongoing trend of preemption. And it also means that certain VCs will double down much more aggressively on companies that are working and potentially shut out others from participating in their …”
Gil: VCs applying software metrics to food tech and biotech will burn
“I think the place where it ends poorly is where somebody applies and assumes software-related models to non-software areas, and they don't think about the margin structure, and they don't think about dealing with physical goods, and that's where I think a lot …”
Elad Gil: COVID-accelerated startup categories like consumer edtech will vaporize
“And so I think there's going to be certain areas that are really accelerating right now that are going to vaporize.”
Elad Gil: Instacart will retain massive growth post-pandemic
“Instacart, I think even if it snaps back to half of Where it is today, it's still going to be massive acceleration of the business.”
Elad Gil: Corporate travel demand will recover within 1-2 years
“Some corporate travel company like TripActions, I don't know anything in detail about them, but I'm assuming there are businesses way down, but in a year or two, a lot of it will come back. Enterprises will start to travel again.”
Elad Gil: Preemptive inside VC rounds will end within two months
“And I think that trend has another month or two on it. And then I think late stage VCs will start shifting their perspective for early stage investments.”
Elad Gil: Several venture funds will struggle to raise capital in 2021
“I do think that there are going to be a handful of venture funds that are going to find it increasingly hard to raise their next venture fund sometime next year.”
Elad Gil: M&A buyer activity will surge within 6 to 18 months
“I think there will definitely be a number of buyers coming into the market and that's actually one of the offensive things that you can do as a company if you're late stage is you can start planning ahead in terms of what are the companies you want to buy and …”