why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Sim: Loom sold for under $1B after a $1.5B peak 2021 valuation
“At the end of last year, I'm not in the room with Loom, but that last round valuation was at 1.5 billion dollars, right? That was led in 20, 21, and they sold for nine 99 or something, nine 50, right?”
Assertion Supported
Sim: Palo Alto Networks paid $200M to $400M for startups with $2M ARR
“Look at all the stuff that Palo Alto bought. A lot of those companies had two to three million dollars of AR getting sold for two, three, four hundred million dollars, right?”
Prediction Held up
Sim: Apple edge AI developments will not generate meaningful revenue in 2024
“My short would probably be, I mean, just what everyone's looking at now is just Apple right now. I think Apple, You know, you've got an iPhone growth issue over there at Apple, but the one thing that gets me excited about Apple is the idea of machine learning …”
Assertion Supported
New York seed valuations are consistently lower than Silicon Valley
“I think that the New York valuations tend to be a little lower than the Valley.”
Prediction Held up
AI will infiltrate every enterprise software category within five years
“I think I'm seeing a lot of kind of AI, not AI platforms, but AI being infiltrated across every segment of enterprise software. And I'm also seeing a lot of stuff where messaging is going from consumers to the enterprise as well. Messaging meaning you know, al…”
Assertion Supported
Sim: SecurityScorecard surpassed $100M in annual recurring revenue in 2023
“Security scorecard. The market's not big enough. It's not, this is not that they did over a hundred million of error last year.”
Prediction Held up
Sim: Unicorns will acquire private startups to build platforms before IPO
“You're going to see more private to private as well. And the reason why that makes sense for a private company is because if you're a one product company, going back to the platform play, you're going to go, you're going to have to buy another product or two a…”
Prediction Held up
Sim: Most 2024 tech IPOs will be down rounds from the ZIRP era
“Look, the margin majority of companies that go do go public this year will be down rounds from the prior rounds, especially if they're raised towards the Zerp era.”
Assertion Supported
Pre-cloud enterprise startups required $4M to $5M Series A rounds
“A traditional way of building an enterprise startup would usually require at least four or five million dollars in an A round up, up until the point that, The newer entrepreneurs took advantage of the cloud and open source.”
Assertion Supported
Sim: Median pre-seed company age is 1.2 years, seed is 2.7
“The median age of a company that raises a pre-seed round is 1.2 years of age now. And the median age of a company that raises a seed round is 2.7.”
Assertion Supported
Ed Sim: Global quarterly VC funding dropped from $200B to $73B
“If you look at the peak, I think the peak was Q four, 20, 21, that about two hundred billion dollars was invested. Most recently it was seventy three billion in the last quarter.”