The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Douwe Kiela: EU AI regulation will completely destroy innovation
“What Europe is going to try to do is overregulate everything and just completely destroy
innovation.”
Douwe Kiela: AI will displace the majority human workforce within 5-10 years
“If you look at how OpenAI and Anthropic and these places define AGI, it's as systems achieving capabilities that allow them to effectively do the work of humans for the majority of economically valuable human tasks. Then we're not that far away from it. And so…”
Douwe Kiela: AI Model Parameter Sizes Will Stop Growing Rapidly
“I think Sam Altman had this interesting quote where he was saying that he thought models would stop growing in size. GPT-IV kind of hit this ceiling. I think that's probably right, but not really because size doesn't matter. It's just that data size matters ev…”
Douwe Kiela: GPT-4 Will Disrupt Data Annotators Like Mechanical Turk
“One of the use cases I've been seeing now for GPT-IV is actually that people are using it to generate data and then they're training on that data with cheaper models. So GPT-IV might end up disrupting, not knowledge workers necessarily, but it might just disru…”
Douwe Kiela: Artificial Specialized Intelligence will be achieved much faster than AGI
“And I think you're totally right that that's a much easier problem to solve much quicker and then slowly grow with the capabilities of these models.”
Douwe Kiela: GPT-4 will disrupt Mechanical Turk before knowledge workers
“And so, so GPT-IV might end up disrupting, not like knowledge workers necessarily, but it might just disrupt like mechanical Turk and is just a, an annotator on steroids.”
Douwe Kiela: Foundation model builders will rely on external AI security audits
“And so that's a, an interesting part of the market, but I don't think that, that the actual foundation model builders like open AI and contextual are going to build that technology in house. It's probably gonna be an external sort of audit.”
Douwe Kiela: AI hype disillusionment will dry up funding and threaten startups
“At some point there's going to be a disillusionment with the technology and then funding might dry up and then these places are really in trouble.”
Douwe Kiela: Model-agnostic AI startups will have a competitive advantage
“At this particular point in time, probably yes, but just because the field is moving so incredibly quickly. And so I think that in the next year, we're going to see lots of other models coming out. And if you can have a language model, agnostic AI company that…”
Douwe Kiela: AI model protection will drive a new cybersecurity wave
“Oh, absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. So that's completely going to change everything.”
Douwe Kiela: The AI market will be tiered across multiple specialized models
“It's going to be lots of models at different parts different layers of this pyramid being used for different kinds of applications.”
Douwe Kiela: An enterprise AI adoption tidal wave is coming
“I think the tidal wave is coming. There are just big problems that we have to overcome, and these are the things I just talked about, right? So hallucination, attribution compliance up-to-dateness, data privacy, latency and I think the whole field is, is movin…”