why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
a16z's larger venture funds consistently outperform its smaller funds
“Our funds consistently beat small, large, Diversified, concentrated venture funds. So our larger funds have outperformed our smaller ones, and our larger ones actually have similar multiples of money to our smaller ones across, across strategies.”
Assertion Supported
David George says no public CEO he knows regrets going public
“So, you know, I tell our CEOs all the time, I've been fortunate to work with a bunch of public companies. Never one of them has said, I regret going public.”
Assertion Supported
Winning AI applications are growing three times faster than predecessor SaaS startups
“For most of these companies that we've backed, these winning apps, they're growing faster, three X faster, you know, than predecessor SaaS and cloud companies.”
Assertion Partly supported
Russell 2500 average return on invested capital halved over 30 years
“The ROIC of the Russell 2500 over the last 30 years, it's gone from seven and a half percent steadily down to three percent. So like more than cut in half.”
Assertion Supported
Top-performing venture capital funds historically outperform top private equity funds
“If you were to look at our returns or the top performing venture funds, let's just call it that relative to, you know, top performing PE funds, the top performing venture funds outperform.”
Assertion Supported
C.H. Robinson saw a 40% AI-driven productivity gain in shipments
“They just disclosed in their last earnings that they saw a 40% productivity increased, increase measured in shipments per person per day in their core business since the end of 2022. 40% increase. It's an incredible and it's AI driven. And so what's actually h…”
Assertion Partly supported
Breakout AI companies achieve massive scale with near-zero customer acquisition costs
“11 Labs has this, ChatGPT has this, XAI has this where it's organic customer acquisition or, you know, very low cost sales acquisition, Abridge, Harvey, companies where, like, the market is just absolutely starving for their product.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
a16z Growth targets 3x to 5x returns with a 10% loss rate
“We target three to five X returns over five years in aggregate, but we place So we're constantly asking, how could this investment be worth 10 X plus? And we focus probably more of our effort on that than around the downside. You know, I always ask my team whe…”
Assertion Supported
a16z gives sponsoring GPs final authority via single trigger-puller model
“Just like we do at the venture fund, we have a single trigger-puller model, though. We have discussions and deep, robust discussions about investment decisions, but it's ultimately the call of the GP who's sponsoring the investment.”
Assertion Supported
Tech private markets have reached over $5 trillion in market capitalization
“The private markets have grown 10 X over 10 years, right? It's over five trillion dollars of market cap now in our market.”
Assertion Contradicted
The number of US public companies halved over the last 20 years
“It turns out that the number of public companies has been cut in half over the last 20 years.”
Assertion Supported
The original SoftBank Vision Fund correctly identified the massive AI opportunity
“They were early to figuring out that there would be a huge opportunity in AI. So, you know, they famously were in NVIDIA in, in that fund you know, and they did some really good investments, like Slack, like Garnet.”
Assertion Supported
Radiologist jobs increased despite AI outperforming humans at reading scans
“Like AI has been able to do a better job than human radiologists. Like prior to this whole wave, like neural nets were able to do a better job than human radiologists and looking at scans. And yet since the, you know, this sort of proliferation of AI, the numb…”
Assertion Contradicted
George: Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow command market cap in B2B
“In B to B, you know, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow, they command almost all the market cap in their respective markets.”
Assertion Contradicted
Google and Facebook user monetization grew sevenfold over the last decade
“10 years ago, Google and Facebook were monetizing their users at like one-seventh of what they are today.”
Assertion Supported
a16z Growth Fund's investment committee consists of just three partners
“We have a three-person investment committee. It's Mark, Scott Cooper, and me for the growth fund.”