The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 163 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Frankel: Microsoft Has Done a "Crappy Job" With AI
“So I think Microsoft have done a crappy job of AI generally.”
Frankel: Tiger Global operated like a casino
“Those guys were just like a casino. One call to John at Tiger. Like, 20 on 80, no problem.”
Frankel: Backing successful second-time founders hasn't worked out due to hubris
“I would say generally founders who've had enormous, enormous success and exits come to the next opportunity with some degree of hubris. I speak about this personally. I sold my first business And I thought I could conquer anything. And they look at any vertica…”
Frankel: Live Nation and Ticketmaster merger should never have been allowed
“So Live Nation Ticketmaster, that merger should never have been allowed. But once it's allowed, we will occupy, monopolize that position all day long.”
Frankel: Aiming Exclusively for 'Unicorn or Bust' Seed Returns Is Insane
“I think it's insanity. I just think it's insanity. Like, I think when, I think you market those winners, and again, it's great PR fodder, it's great to, like, attract the investors in the next fund, but I think it's insanity to go, it's like that huge, you kno…”
Frankel: Multi-stage VC firms have no incentive to matchmake for startups
“Sequoia will, it doesn't matter, by the way, I don't want to single out Sequoia here, but it doesn't matter if you take your check from Andreessen, Sequoia, Axel, you name them, right? They will never, they have no incentive to matchmake. They have no incentiv…”
Frankel: Heavily Funded AI Startups Are Not Capital Efficient
“There's very little evidence yet that These hot, hot AI companies that are raising huge amounts of money are capital efficient, right? They're anything but capital efficient. There's, like, the jury's out on whether that's going to work still.”
Frankel: Uncapped Convertible Notes Suck at the Seed Stage
“I mean, the scale of how much you have to win, right, is different based on your price. It's pure math. So, uncapped notes suck at the seed stage.”
Frankel: Standard 10-Year Venture Capital Funds Now Take 18 Years to Mature
“You know, these ten-year funds are taking 18 years.”
Frankel: OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX Are Today's Metas and Googles
“And I think in, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic and SpaceX, we're seeing that already. Like these are the Metas and the Googles of our era, highly likely.”
Frankel: The jury is out on post-2020 venture fund DPI performance
“A little less since twenty-twenty. Like, if you look at the DPI analysis, like, the jury's out from twenty-twenty onwards.”
Frankel: Billion-Dollar Early Rounds Are Momentum Plays, Not Seed Value Investing
“I think that that's the momentum business, and I think knowing how and when to get out quickly with some of those really, really matters, and that's not really my business. So my business is value, is getting involved early, and trying to find value opportunit…”
Frankel: Sovereign wealth funds prioritize IRR over fund return multiples
“Sovereign wealth funds and public investment corporations are looking for IRR. They're not measuring this in how many times do you X the fund.”
Frankel: Post-2020 mega funds boast high TVPI but lag on DPI
“Subsequent to twenty-twenty, like the TVPI is there, and some, in some cases, they're on steroids. The DPI is less there, if you look at the actual stats.”
Frankel: Embedded, Mission-Critical SaaS Workflows Will Survive AI Disruption
“The more embedded you are, like the more difficult you are to dispense because real time, Thousands, billions of orders are being run in your system, or like mission critical biotech research is being run in your system. The more embedded you are, I think the …”
Frankel: Seed VCs Should Sell 20% of Winners Early to Generate DPI
“Even in your top names, sometimes taking 20% off the table, if you can return 25% of the fund, particularly if it's a newish fund, so if it's a, you know, if it's a twenty-twenty-four fund and you can give back 25%, like, why wouldn't you do that? And you're s…”
Frankel: Fund of Funds Are Liquidating Entire Billion-Dollar Portfolios via Secondaries
“By the way, we've seen fund of funds do secondaries of their entire fund, So we go, oh my god, you're in fund two, or you're in fund four, like, you should never sell, right? Like, this is what's, and it's like, it's not about you, right? Like, you're a roundi…”
Frankel: Moderately Successful Second-Time Founders Outperform Prior Massive Winners
“And I think overall we've done a little better on second time founders who didn't do that great up front. They didn't, they did okay, right? It's life changing. Like the first million dollars is so life changing. But they're really hungry. They've learned some…”
Frankel: The Tech Market Is "Definitely" Headed for Another Dot-Com Crash
“Are we headed for another dot com crash? Definitely. If, like, Is not a question. When? Nobody knows, right?”
Frankel: Angel networks can increasingly bypass traditional venture firms
“It may just be in, like, angels putting money all over the place, and some of those angels are going to know people that worked with them or for them, and they're going to, you know, I think you can bypass traditional venture to a great extent, and that's the …”
Frankel: AI Will Not Cause Mass Unemployment, Only Massive Productivity Gains
“Do I think that we're going to have mass unemployment because of AI? And you're seeing a lot of leadership now agree with the viewers. No, I think we're going to see tremendous productivity gains.”
Frankel: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Eventually Be Disrupted by Chinese Competitors
“That anthropic and open AI are going to be disrupted. It's like unequivocal. Like our whole careers are about disruption. Those platforms never, ever stay forever. Where is it going to come from? Excellent chance it comes from China. It's coming.”
Frankel: Photonic Computing Will Disrupt or Be Acquired by Nvidia Within a Decade
“In my view, if you say in 10 years time, and I am not a thematic investor, but I am such a deep believer in
The status quo being changed always, and not, and like nothing stays the same.
I think photonic computing is coming down the line, and I think that's go…”
Frankel: VCs who claim they knew a company would become huge are dishonest
“Anyone in my seat who says, I knew, is just full of shit.”
Frankel: Pro-rata rights are the original sin against entrepreneurs
“I still think of, like, pro rot as, like, the original sin against entrepreneurs.”
Frankel: Founder Collective broke rules to invest $100K at $100M valuation
“In that situation, I broke every rule under the sun, and we put in a hundred K check, right? I broke my rules. But we don't do that.”
Frankel: Rejection by a Top VC Creates Severe Signaling Risks
“You know, you're in a world of hurt because someone that the world thought was, like, very, very serious and very smart about you just said no to you. Go try sell against that. I think it's very, very difficult.”
Frankel: 90% of VC-Backed Founders Do Not Receive Follow-On Funding
“They didn't do, but I was, they don't understand that 90% don't get follow on funding.”
Frankel: Pari passu terms are ending as strict preference stacks return
“And the PREF stack, like peri-passu, feels like something of the past. There's a real PREF stack coming.”
Frankel: Founder Collective's 2018 Fund III has generated zero DPI
“Fund, our Fund Three is a 20 18 vintage. No DPI yet.”
Frankel: Strong post-election IPOs will trigger a broader public market reopening
“I think pre-election in the US, IPOs are pretty much closed for now. I think post-election, one or two or three great IPOs, every single, you're going to have like this swarm of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs bankers coming to tell you, like, it is open.”
Frankel: Seed funds can return capital via multiple moderate exits, not just mega-unicorns
“Fund returners, you need four or five good fund, good companies. If we sell four companies at two hundred fifty million dollars each, right, we can return a fund. If we sell 10 companies at a hundred million each, like, nobody cares about that, we can return a…”
Frankel: Large VC checks without board seats signal low commitment
“And if entrepreneurs get a ten million dollar, you know, check from XYZ, you know, large scale fund, And a partner doesn't join the board. That is not a good signal.”
Frankel: Check-to-fund size ratio reveals true investor alignment
“I think for entrepreneurs and for LPs, right, size of fund, check in company versus size of fund tells you everything. Everything.”
Frankel: VCs are quiet quitting on struggling portfolio companies
“I do. I do. You know, I think it's for the entrepreneur, It's like, there comes a point where it's like, you can have, it goes back to your earlier question, you can have words, you can have as many discussions. If the business is just not working out, like, d…”
Frankel: Investors should never sell shares in companies with real moats
“If I look back, I go, like, never sell a single thing. If you could, and, you know, people have to live and People have various desires, but if you could, never sell a share. And I know we've gone through the up and the down cycle, but great companies, compani…”
Frankel: Pharmacy benefit managers hold huge market caps while adding no value
“And these are these legacy companies, a great example of them is the PBMs, the Pharmacy Benefit Managers. Companies that were very innovative 40 years ago, So a PBM connects the pharmacy to the insurer. You know, 40 years ago or 30 years ago, they were great c…”
Frankel: I testified to the DOJ regarding Live Nation and Ticketmaster
“I actually gave I gave testimony to a panel of lawyers for the Department of Justice.”
Frankel: Thrive Capital LPs will make a 2x return on OpenAI
“Is Josh in the winner there going to make two X, and maybe much more than that, but bet against the two X? I wouldn't bet against the two X. I think his LPs will make two X on that.”
Frankel: Founder Collective passes on AI seed rounds at $100M valuations
“When I see those rounds at like 25 on a hundred, pretty much we're out. We're pretty much out. Again, team versus theme. So, you know, there are rare instances where we see someone who's just like, you cannot ignore, you wake up in the morning, you go, oh my g…”
Frankel: Seed funds cannot rely on chasing high-valuation outliers as a strategy
“Rearview mirror on this, you can't build a fund on this. Rearview mirror, you can think about that one that you missed, and they're one or two in a generation. There are these generational companies, or maybe there is one a year, and if you're in that company,…”
Frankel: Short-Term AI Earnings Will Disappoint Relative to Massive Capex
“So I think in short term, we're going to be, you know, underwhelmed right now. I think if you look at like the amount of capex that's being spent, and you look at the actual earnings that will be generated in the short term, there's just no way it makes sense.”
Frankel: Founder Collective Only Invests When Seeing 10x Potential
“We look at a company and go, can we 10 X that? Can we 10 X? And if we can't, then we shouldn't invest.”
Frankel: Venture funds aren't taking enough risk if they aren't losing money
“But I think it's the most unfair feature of capitalism, Harry, is the most you can lose is all your money. The most you can make is three, you know, 3000 X, right, or unlimited. If you just look at that, it is such an unfair feature of capitalism, and my LPs m…”