The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Clark: Tech venture exit sizes will increase over next 10-15 years
“Ultimately the markets that they're playing in, and the share of the economic pie that technology is going to capture, in our view, is only going to increase. And so that gives us confidence that whatever the multiples are at the time of exit, the directionall…”
Clark: M&A regulatory chill will concentrate VC returns in fewer companies
“I think the impact that will have is that the concentration of returns in venture is going to be even smaller as they're going to be fewer companies that ultimately account for that, that performance.”
Clark: Early-stage loss ratios will return to 60%, causing widespread startup failures
“My sense is that it's going to go back to the average. It's going to go back to that sort of 60%. So I think there's a lot of pain still to be had. So that's not just companies who are going to get see their values reduced. I think there's a lot that ultimatel…”
David Clark: Late-Stage VC Returns Will Decline as Valuations Become Efficient
“If you're talking about, you know, the people that are raising multiple billions of dollars to do you know, to do the crossover deals, the late stage private rounds, Then I think that is more of a capital allocation exercise than it is a kind of craft business…”
Clark: LPs will wait 18-24 months for liquidity after IPOs resume
“So even if we start to see IPOs in the second half of this year, it's going to be six months before those shares become freely tradable and again, it will probably be another 12 to 18 months before those positions ultimately get fully distributed.”