why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Powers: Hoka will never market directly to mass-market casual consumers
“We're not going to market mass market to the casual consumer out there. That's not who we are. We are performance brand through and through.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Powers: Deckers can organically add billions in revenue over five years
“We feel we have a path where we could, you know, Add billions onto our revenue today over the next five years organically, which is the best way to grow a business because it's built in.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Powers: HOKA has the potential to reach $5 billion in revenue
“Maybe not all from Nike, but it has the potential to be five billion in revenue for sure.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Powers: Removing a bad culture fit takes 6 to 12 months
“It takes, you know, six to 12 months, but usually what happens is kind of organ rejection. It's not me identifying somebody. It's the, you know, it's the company and the employee saying, hey, this person is just not, you know, able to work the way we work. The…”
Assertion Supported
Powers: Hoka had to pull back inventory and close accounts early on
“We actually went through a period early on where we had a lot of markdown inventory in the channel. We were selling off price to people, and it was because we were trying to chase a growth number. So fortunately, we recognized that early on, and we pulled back…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Uncontrolled retail distribution damaged the UGG brand long-term
“We got in a lot of trouble back in the days with UGG because we just sold our basic product to everybody and just let them do what they wanted with it. And that worked for a while, but then it really hurt the brand.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Powers: Performance footwear will see next-level super sneakers over 5-10 years
“So I think you're going to start seeing, you know, really next level super sneakers. I mean, look at the one Adidas just launched, you know, it's meant to be worn once one marathon and then it's no good. Right. But people are breaking records in it. So it's, w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Powers: Hoka and On hold small global market shares with huge upside
“Between the two of us, our market shares are still relatively small globally. There's so, so much potential for both brands to do incredibly well.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Powers: UGG has grown into a $2 billion-plus brand
“And so we've been able to tap into those two insights to build what we are now, a two billion dollar plus brand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Rebuilding UGG's market positioning in Europe took five years
“And we lost the specialness of the brand, and it took us five years in the UK and Europe to get that back.”
Assertion Supported
Deckers told Wall Street in 2016 it would prioritize profitability over revenue
“We told the street we're going to pull back on revenue growth, but we're going to improve our profit profile.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: UGG increased customer purchase frequency to 2-3 times annually
“Traditionally, it would buy one boot every two and a half years, right? The classic boot. And now we have people buying two or three times a year because they're buying different products.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Teva offers higher global awareness and margins than potential acquisitions
“And honestly, when we looked at Teva and compared to all these, you know, these brands that we could have potentially purchased, Teva has the best global awareness. It has the best margins.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Hoka customers buy two to three pairs per year
“When we used to sell UGG Once every two or three years, a 160 dollar price point. Now we're selling Hoka two to three times a year at a 160 dollars set price point.”
Prediction Held up
Powers: Deckers avoids consumer-facing corporate branding, focusing Deckers name on investors
“Well, you know, we're holding company for the brands, right? We're not expecting or trying to get consumers to know Deckers. That's not our goal. We want investors to know Deckers, and they do, but we're not pushing the Decker's name to consumers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Timberland Required All Non-Footwear Products to Match Original Boot Standards
“Every product we make is a boot, whether it's a jacket or a backpack or a pair of jeans. And What he meant was everything has to have the same qualities as our original boot that the company was founded on. It's durable. It's quality. It's, you know, a high le…”
Assertion Partly supported
Powers: Direct-to-consumer is Deckers' most profitable channel
“Our DDC channel is our most profitable channel, right? Margin and profit.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Hoka rejects more wholesale retail accounts than it accepts
“We say no to more, you know, more accounts than we say yes to.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Powers: 2023 UTMB and Ironman Champions Both Competed in Hoka
“The winner of the ultra marathon, the UTMB at the ultra marathon, but the ultra trail Montblanc and Chamonix, you know, the winner of that race was wearing Hoka. And two weeks later, the winner of the Ironman championships in Nice was wearing Hoka.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Powers: Most late-stage Ironman finishers wear Hoka shoes
“From 11 to midnight at the Ironman championships where the last finishers are coming in, you know, some of them have disabilities, some of them are 70 plus and older, and most of those people are wearing Hoka.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Powers: Oprah's endorsement triggered 5 years of intense UGG demand
“At that time, yes. Oh yeah. I mean, they were chasing business. It was a freight strain, and they were just trying to keep up for a good five years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Powers: Deckers operates at an 18% operating profit margin
“You know, the good news is we have very healthy profit margins. You know, we're in 18 Percent operating profit.”
Assertion Supported
Powers: Footwear margins average 10-12%, while Crocs achieves high twenties
“Above 10% is, is healthy, probably average 10 to 12. And, you know, so you have folks out there like Crocs, which is, you know, high twenties.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Powers: Deckers' best decision was reallocating capital to Hoka and Ugg in 2016
“You know, what myself and the finance leaders at the time did in 16 and 17 would say, actually, no, you don't all need that money. These two things need that money. And we're going to reset. That was the biggest reallocation success that we had.”