The Ledger
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Venture math should focus on probability distributions, not ownership percentages
“But the point that I was making with Michael is that ownership really isn't the math that we use to kind of think about how we invest. We really think more in terms of number of investments and the likely probability distribution of finding large outcomes. And…”
Predictably hitting unicorns requires investing in 200 to 500 startups
“If we find, you know, unicorn only two percent of the time, or heaven forbid, one percent of the time, our portfolio size needs to be a minimum of 50 to a hundred to really have a shot at that, and I would argue, actually, we are aiming for more than one unico…”
Overemphasis on venture signaling indicates underlying company performance issues
“My perspective on this is typically that if the founder or other investors are more worried about my investment decision than the baseline performance of the company, there's already likely some kind of problem there.”