why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silicon Valley will solve its housing crisis and remain the tech hub
“I think we will. I think Silicon Valley has managed to produce significantly harder innovations than fixing housing, but I think that's the ticket to becoming the home for things like cryptocurrency and longevity, because ultimately people need to be able to a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gross: AI platform startups face tough competition from TensorFlow and incumbents
“Second is for the platform companies, I do think there's a less obvious but likely business model as well. Less obvious because unlike the database analogy I provided, it's not immediately clear that there'll be An Oracle or a MySQL, that is to say, a company …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gross: No independent company exists solely because of modern ML
“Currently, the way you kind of look at the world today, there is yet to be an independent entity that you could really say is an AI company, or I think a better framework for this only exists because of the kind of latest and greatest machine learning technolo…”
Assertion Supported
Gross: Autonomous driving startups are operating without LIDAR
“And there certainly are startups that are working on autonomy, literally with cameras and deep learning alone without the help of LIDAR.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gross: Machine learning-enabled software will eat traditional software
“I think that there are going to be business models of taking AI and applying it to a vertical in the same way that you could literally take the advent of the database and apply it to a vertical. You know, software eats the world. Is a quote I think originally …”
Assertion Supported
US productivity and innovation growth has dropped below one percent
“Economic productivity in the United States and innovation in the United States has slowed down from just below two percent to below a percent over the course of the past few decades.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pioneer aims to eventually distribute grants to one million people
“Our dream one day is to be able to hand out grants to a million people, and we just need to figure out a way where we can create the capital to do that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gross: Breakthroughs in reinforcement learning will transition to market quickly
“Because when something really big happens with, say, reinforcement learning, which is an area mostly attributed to research today, it's going to happen really quickly.”
Assertion Supported
SpaceX began as a temporary project to photograph a plant on Mars
“SpaceX with all of its grand and glory was started as effectively almost as like a Hollywood ask moonshot project to just like take a photo of a plant on Mars, and Elon was going to find some Russian rockets to just send a bunch of stuff to Mars, cameras, take…”