why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: AI models have reached maturity and won't innovate materially soon
“I personally don't believe that the models can innovate in a material way in a reasonable amount of time. I think they reach maturity in a way.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dedicated AI models will be built on open-source, not closed frontier models
“So obviously there will be a world A few frontier models and a lot of dedicated models, and dedicated models will be built on the top of, I think is more likely to be built on the top of open source models that, you know, close source frontier models.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Enterprise AI agents will recommend, not act directly without human validation
“Agents will make recommendations. Agents are not gonna take actions directly. There will be a progression from agents making recommendations, going to a human user for validating, and then calling an action.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Fully autonomous AI agents will take as long as self-driving cars
“As long as it's gonna take for you know, the nice self-driving cars that we have today to be fully autonomous and to drive, you know, asides with people on the streets and they will just work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Enterprise Clients Won't Move Epic Data to Salesforce For Agents
“I was talking to the CIO, which is close to us, and he said, I will never put data from Epic into Salesforce in order to create an agent. Never. There is no chance to do this. So, It's as simple as this. They will prefer to use us to have connectors, feed agen…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Wide-scale agentic AI deployment will take 5 to 10 years
“I think it's gonna take next five, 10 years to, with the current state-of-the-art LLMs, it's gonna take next five to 10 years to get to very wide scale deployment of agentic plus automation.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Nvidia will struggle to maintain current chip dominance against hyperscalers
“It's hard to see it at existing levels, and think about, I think half of NVIDIA revenue today is from these five hyperscalers, so, and if they are all in the business of building, it's kind of, I think it's hard, but obviously NVIDIA has such an important, you…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Daniel Dines says AI productivity gains for software engineers won't be gigantic
“You will get some productivity improvement that I don't think will be Gigantic.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dines: Salesforce and SAP Will Limit AI Agents to Own Platforms
“What's the interest of Salesforce to provide amazing connections to SAP and vice versa? No, it's not. So they will focus on building agents that work specifically for workloads that stay within their platforms.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Future SaaS pricing will combine seat-based and consumption-based models
“I think the pricing models in the future will be both seat based and some kind of, they will have some kind of consumption based mechanism. Combine.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dines: Human validation of AI will focus only on complex edge cases
“These validations will be actually mostly on the difficult cases in, in the longer term.”