The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Obrecht: Canva to hit $4B revenue at 40% growth rate
“We will close the year very close, if not at four billion growing, ah, close to 40% growth rate and re-accelerating growth.”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 5:21 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Obrecht: 90% of AI Queries Will Shift On-Device or Self-Hosted
“For the most premium queries where you need that answer, but 90% of it will be run on device or be self-hosted.”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 53:30 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Obrecht: AI Energy Demand Will Accelerate Transition to Nuclear Power
“And so while I see AI pessimists and environmental pessimists saying, oh, so much more energy, it's going to be bad for the environment. I actually think it's going to rapidly accelerate our shift to green energy, particularly nuclear which we're just going to…”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 1:06:01 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Cliff Obrecht: Enterprise AI Tool Subscriptions Will Consolidate Within 24 Months
“Over the course of the next 12 to 24 months, we'll start consolidating down as the clear winners take charge, and so to answer your question that way, hundred percent there's going to be consolidation down from yeah, year two renewals.”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 13:45 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Partly held up
Obrecht: Canva Is Transitioning to a Unified AI Credit Model
“We're moving to a unified credit model around AI. So your premium subscription, free gets a certain amount, premium subscription gets you a certain amount. And then if you're a super active user, and so that means it can't eat into our margins too much. So you…”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 58:58 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Obrecht: Canva co-founder will not build another commercial startup
“Well, I don't think so. It's hard. Although, glance for punishment. Like, we will probably do, we'll run projects, philanthropic projects that are built like a startup based on technology.”
Cliff Obrecht Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 54:13 Canva's Cliff Obrecht: How We Turned Our Yearbook Company to $40B Business | 20VC #971 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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