The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 26 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lanng: Pursuing AGI Will Disappoint Due to Asymptotic Limits in AI
“Everybody who's pushing for AGI level AI right now, they're going to be sorely disappointed. I think it's an asymptomatic curve, and I think we're going to end up with Waymo-style cars, meaning you almost have a lawyer, but not quite, and the five percent you …”
Lanng: Copyright Issues Will Not Severely Impede AI Model Training
“I think the copyright issues are trending in a direction where I don't think it's going to be a major problem. I mean, fair use, I think, is, is, is, is covering this fairly well”
Ariba acts as a toll gate, extracting 80% of revenue from suppliers
“One of our competitors, you know, Ariba, they've for a long time gone out to these huge companies and said, hey, we will help you Digitize your supply chain, and you just got to buy our platform, and then they go and they invite all of the suppliers in the sup…”
Lanng: VCs own most equity after six years for 99% of startups
“The first thing is, for 99% of startups, you know, I mean, No offense, but VCs is gonna own most of your company by the time you have worked for six or seven years, and your salary will probably be less than if you had worked anywhere else combined.”
Lanng: Tradeshift fired 50% of VPs with no productivity loss
“At one point we fired 50% of the VPs in TradeShift. And there was no drop of productivity.”
Lanng: Counting Apple out of the AI race is a major mistake
“And I think, by the way, everybody will be making a mix, make a big mistake if they count Apple out of the AI race. They're gonna come With a hundred miles an hour, I mean, they come in, it would be really, really good.”
Lanng: Traditional software user interfaces will be obsolete within three years
“There would be a new generation of user interfaces that haven't fully been invented yet, but we will look at all of the screens of the applications we use every day as dinosaurs in less than three years.”
Christian Lanng: Software will shift entirely to consumption-based pricing
“I think we're gonna absolutely move to consumption-based pricing. It's the only way. I think it's gonna be very hard to hold the mold mode on, on recurring revenue as it is today. Because customers will want to see more value, and they'll want to see a more so…”
Lanng: 99% of venture capital invested in AI will be wasted
“99% of the money going in is going to be lit on fire, and two, we are underestimating the impact of AI.”
Lanng: Most application-based software brands will struggle due to AI
“I think actually that one of the biggest impacts of AI and LLM is that most application-based brands are going to be really struggling because the brand is the UX.”
Lanng: Building and retaining consumer tech brands will be extremely difficult
“And to try to build a consumer tech brand and hold on to any population of users is going to be very, very, very hard in a world where innovation is almost free and LLMs can make anything.”
Lanng: Proprietary Data Will Be Primary Differentiator in AI
“The biggest differentiator in the world to come is going to be proprietary data.”
80% of US manufacturing job losses came from tech, not China
“80% of the jobs that disappeared in US manufacturing did not Go to China. They went to technology.”
Lang: Software pricing will shift to consumption-based models to retain value
“I think we're going to absolutely move to consumption based pricing. It's the only way I think it's going to be very hard to hold the moat on, on recurring revenue as it is today, because customers will want to see more value, and they'll want to see a more so…”
Lanng almost died of anemia due to extreme Tradeshift workload
“I almost died of anemia, actually, because I just didn't have time to go to the doctor.”
Lanng: Enterprise software spend grew to $780B while IT headcount doubled
“IT corporate budgets, they went from three hundred billion to seven hundred eighty billion dollars in enterprise software over the last 10 years. At the same time, we doubled the amount of people in shared services, eight to sixteen million, and we doubled the…”
Lanng: Meta's open-source model matched ChatGPT-3.5 locally within 9 months
“But nine months later, I was running on my laptop a model that was as powerful as ChatGPT three and a half that was released as open source by Facebook.”
Lanng: AI will completely disrupt traditional venture capital workflows
“I know, but on, on the investment side, right, I mean, beyond work, we worked with Moonfire, and they're really interesting because they actually tried to build an AI-first venture fund. Yeah. They went out with a real framework, invested heavily in, you know,…”
Lanng: More AI startups will get funded next year as top talent enters
“Yeah, I mean, I think there will still be a lot of money going into the long tail, but you're right that the concentration will happen in the top, but I think ultimately there will still be more companies getting funded just because some of the smartest people…”
AI will very soon completely commoditize automated manufacturing
“Very soon, that will be completely commoditized. And again, AI will do the same to manufacturing that it's doing to software.”
Lanng: Standardized SaaS metrics like Rule of 40 didn't exist in 2009
“SaaS metrics should be this, and this should be your margin, and rule of 40, and all of this. Like, are you aware that none of this existed? 14 years ago. People, we were making it up as we went along. It's like, what should be great metrics for a SaaS company…”
Lanng: Second-wave AI startups will outperform early hype companies
“They spent a year or two thinking, looking a little bit at the hype, and now they're really getting into it, and I think those startups are gonna really crush it and avoid a lot of the early generation mistakes.”
Lanng: AI development shifted from corporate labs to Discord developers
“If you go back five, six years, it was like, AI was made by these, the cathedrals, like Google, and it was like, really serious scientists doing really serious stuff, and now people are hacking and LM models on Discord, and so, so we have this underground that…”
Lanng: AI startups have largely abandoned Slack for Discord
“Everyone is in Discord, by the way, now. I mean, it's so crazy, like, nobody is on Slack that I know in this environment.”