why aren't all 72 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Chris Sacca claims he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“And I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the president of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacca says he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the President of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Opinion
Chris Sacca calls Facebook a "cancer" and claims its leadership knows it
“Yeah, I think Facebook is a cancer, and they know it.”
Opinion
Sacca considers Facebook to be a cancer
“Yeah, I think Facebook is a cancer”
Insight
Sacca argues sunlight reflection research is essential to avoid climate catastrophe
“And so the one thing we absolutely have to do is research sunlight reflection. And so we have no way out of this without reflecting sunlight back into the solar system to buy us some time.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sacca: Travis Kalanick was ousted by 13 Uber managers, not VCs
“In the end, what pushed Travis out was when his team held him accountable. It was when the, you know, his 13 senior managers all wrote a letter and said, dude, you gotta stay out of the company. You know, that's really the only force that Silicon Valley leader…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chris Sacca: Commercial nuclear fusion is imminent, far under 30 years away
“You know, I deeply respect all the work you've done in the space, but you sound like someone who hasn't visited the lab in a while, because that's not where it is, and I can't preempt any announcements coming from any of our companies, but I can assure you it'…”
Opinion
Chris Sacca calls SoftBank "value destructive" in the venture capital industry
“But I think SoftBank is just value destructive, and it drives me fucking crazy.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Chris Sacca claims Lowercarbon Capital's current internal rate of return is 95%
“The multiples are already there. I think IRR is 95% right now, and so so we're already getting fucking rich doing it”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chris Sacca: Rogue states will unilaterally deploy geoengineering if democracies do not
“And if we don't do it, You know, North Korea is going to do it on their own. Like, some rogue state is going to launch a projectile that explodes a bunch of dust in the atmosphere, and we won't know which dust, which altitude, and the best ways to do it, and w…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacca predicts Lowercarbon will outperform his legacy software venture investments
“Absolutely. I'll get way richer from this. I have multiple companies in the portfolio right now that have, like, they have a trajectory to being multi-trillion dollar market cap”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacca: Commercial nuclear fusion is far closer than 30 years away
“I can assure you it is much, much more near term than 30 years imminent, maybe now, who knows, but it's been fucking fascinating to see these accelerating curves”
Opinion
Sacca calls SoftBank value destructive
“I think SoftBank is just value destructive, and it drives me fucking crazy.”
Disclosure
Sacca interviewed dysfunctional wealthy families to avoid their money mistakes
“So when it became clear, we are going to make some money. We just sat down with a bunch of people who had been through that process. And by the way, not just the successful people. We intentionally sat down with people whose marriages had completely dissolved,…”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Sacca: Lowercarbon will only hire people who worked service or labor jobs
“And our organization will only hire people who have had shitty jobs, who've had service jobs, who've worked extremely hard for some point in their life, and who appreciate the worst day of being a VC doesn't begin to compare to the worst day.”
Insight
Sacca: Talent retention is the only effective check on tech founders
“That is the number one hardest resource in all of tech is if you can't recruit and retain good talent, you're powerless. But when your employees won't stick around, that's the only thing that keeps you honest.”
Disclosure
Sacca: We actively help elect progressive candidates who raise our taxes
“We're probably some of the most progressive people in technology, and certainly we help elect candidates who are going to raise our taxes.”
Opinion
Chris Sacca: Computer science graduates are out of touch with reality
“What happens is we have this monoculture of these kids who, in computer science programs now, they've never had a job. Like, the toughest job they've ever had was being a teaching assistant for a class, and so they've never mowed lawns, waited tables, worked i…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lowercarbon Capital only hires people who have worked service or manual labor
“We in our organization will only hire people Who have had shitty jobs, who've had service jobs, who've worked extremely hard for some point in their life, and who appreciate that the worst day of being a VC doesn't begin to compare to the worst day of working …”
Assertion Contradicted
Travis Kalanick was ousted after 13 senior Uber managers demanded his exit
“In the end, what pushed Travis out was when his team held him accountable. It was when the, you know, his 13 senior managers all wrote a letter that said, dude, you've got to stay out of the company.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chris Sacca pays Lowercarbon employees six to ten times the industry standard
“So by the way, I mean, our comp plan probably runs six to 10 times what the industry standard is because I want everyone to materially, I want this to be a life-changing event.”
Assertion Partly supported
Solugen reached a nine-figure run rate with 50% to 60% gross margins
“And so we see this happen with, like, a company, Solugen, who's making industrial chemicals using enzymes instead of petroleum. These guys, like, they're, yes, their first VAT cost a lot of money, but they now are, you know, I don't know if I'allowed to say, b…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2032
Chris Sacca predicts climate tech will make him richer than early web2
“Absolutely. I'll get way richer from this. I mean, we have, I have multiple companies in the portfolio right now that have the very like they have a trajectory to being multi-trillion dollar market cap.”
Insight
Sacca: Every VC deal must offer single-handed life-changing financial potential
“I say in every deal, we have to give ourselves a chance in that one deal to get rich. And this is because I've done, I did YC deals back in the day where I'd put 25 grand in and I'd sell the company for, you know, fifteen million dollars. My 25 grand became 75…”
Insight
Sacca: VCs must self-promote to maintain collaborative deal flow
“To investors who are up and coming, I think you need to consistently remind other investors of how you're helpful. So, you know, people are like, you know, Saka, you're self-promotional. I'm like, fuck yeah, I am. Like, that's part of the job is I have to cont…”
Disclosure
Sacca actively supports political candidates who will raise his taxes
“We're probably some of the most progressive people in technology. And certainly we help elect candidates who are going to raise our taxes.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacca: Lowercarbon will only hire candidates with service or manual labor experience
“And our organization will only hire people who have had shitty jobs, who've had service jobs, who've worked extremely hard for some point in their life, and who appreciate that the worst day of being a VC doesn't begin to compare to the worst day of working in…”
Assertion Contradicted
Travis Kalanick was ousted by a letter from 13 senior Uber managers
“In the end, what pushed Travis out was when his team held him accountable. It was when the, you know, his 13 senior managers all wrote a letter and said, dude, you gotta stay out of the company.”
Disclosure
Lowercarbon's compensation plan is six to ten times VC industry standards
“Our comp plan probably runs six to 10 times what the industry standard is”
Disclosure
Solugen reached a nine-figure run rate with 50% to 60% margins
“A company, Solugen, industrial chemicals using enzymes instead of petroleum. Yes, their first VAT cost a lot of money, but they now are, you know, I don't know if I'allowed to say, but their run rate is ridiculous. Like, I'll fucking say it, like, nine-figure …”
Insight
Sacca: Climate technology must win on economics and product quality, not guilt
“Guilt and shame aren't going to change behavior at scale, The only thing that's really going to get us there is offering people something that's better, cheaper, faster, cooler, sexier, easier to use, easier to maintain.”
What-if
Sacca: Uber's IPO would have gone differently without SoftBank's DoorDash funding
“Uber's IPO would have gone very differently if they hadn't funded DoorDash.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lowercarbon Capital's internal rate of return is currently 95%
“The multiples are already there. I think IRR is 95% right now.”
Disclosure
Chris Sacca funded his first $50,000 angel investment using credit cards
“But that check I wrote was literally a credit card check for me. I didn't have any cash on hand. I was at Google, and I was vesting, but I hadn't sold any stock yet, and so I literally I went into that one with 50,000 dollars of credit card checks.”
Assertion Supported
Chris Sacca day-traded student loans to $12M before losing it all
“So I very famously took my student loan checks for law school, told the school they hadn't shown up, cash them, and use them to day trade in the market. And so this is one of the reasons why I get so nervous about what I see in the Robin Hood phenomenon. You k…”
Disclosure
Chris Sacca passed on Airbnb fearing "blood on your hands" from crime
“It was a lack of optimism that cost me some money in the beginning when I met the Airbnb guys and I pulled them aside and was like, look, somebody's going to get raped or murdered and the blood is going to be on your hands.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacca: Bill Gurley directly confronts founders in board meetings to instil discipline
“I've watched Bill Gurley knuckle up in board meetings and call bullshit, because that's the place it needs to get done, and if you don't build that rigor and discipline early on, you're not setting yourself up to be a world-class company”
Assertion Supported
Lowercase Capital managed $6 billion in assets with only three employees
“At the height of lowercase, we were managing six billion dollars, and we were three people.”
Insight
Sacca: Successful venture capitalists are obsessive, not balanced
“Look, the people who succeed in this business, and this is not an endorsement, this is an observation, are not normal. Like they don't have incredible balance. And so they may like make good time for family and good time for health and working out and may put …”
Insight
Sacca: Climate adoption requires superior products, not guilt and shame
“Guilt and shame aren't going to change behavior at scale. The only thing that's really going to get us there is offering people something that's better, cheaper, faster, cooler, sexier, easier to use, easier to maintain.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lowercarbon Capital requires every investment to have gigaton carbon removal potential
“We in climate, we specifically make sure every deal has more than a gigaton carbon removal potential.”
Insight
Sacca: True VC discipline is picking deals you can personally de-risk
“The discipline is around not just doing every deal that comes your way, but then doing the deals where you personally can de-risk something. Maybe it's moving it from 49 to 51% likelihood, but, you know, maybe you can't add 20% likelihood to the success, but i…”
Disclosure
Chris Sacca's LP portfolio of diverse venture managers is running at 2.5x
“It turns out right now that our LP portfolio of diverse managers is running about a two and a half X.”
Disclosure
Lowercarbon Capital charges zero fees and zero carry to HBCU investors
“For HBCUs, we would do no fee, no carry.”
Insight
Sacca: Treat market success as luck and failure as a personal flaw
“When things are going up, you tend to think it's correlated with your genius and talent, and when things are going down, you tend to think it's unlucky. You learn over time to invert that curve. When things are going up, it's lucky, and when things are going d…”
Disclosure
Sacca passed on Airbnb in 2008 fearing 'blood on your hands'
“It was a lack of optimism that cost me some money in the beginning when I met the Airbnb guys in And I pulled them aside and was like, look, somebody's going to get raped or murdered, and the blood is going to be on your hands.”
Disclosure
Lowercase Capital managed $6 billion with just three employees
“I think we're six people now managing, you know, between the outside money and inside money over a billion dollars. At the height of lowercase, we were managing six billion dollars and we were three people.”
Disclosure
Sacca stepped away from VC because he feared becoming a 'B-teamer'
“That's one of the reasons I quit for a while. Was I worried that, you know, the stage of life I was in, I wasn't going to be able to fucking bring it. I wasn't going to be able to as obsessive as you need to be to succeed in this business and this industry and…”