why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kansu: AI tools will cause engineering, product, and design roles to converge
“I think what is likely to happen is there is clear work definitions of what an engineer does today, what a product manager does, and what a designer does. I think these are going to converge way more than what's happening today in technology organizations.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kansu: AI will completely transform product management within two years
“Honestly, now, probably in 12 to 24 months, the job of a PM will look entirely different. So I think we're talking about five years because that feels safe, but honestly, my guess now, or what I've changed my mind on is, it's going to be in two years, is my gu…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kansu: AI product tools will generate complete apps within 12 months
“In my opinion, that will get solved in, I don't know, maybe 12 months, but I think if you know how to use these tools to create product, build product, and you can kind of harness their power to build great things, you'll come out ahead.”
Prediction Held up
Kansu: Future software will dynamically generate user interfaces on the fly
“What hasn't emerged much is UI creation that is also AI first. So I think you'll see a lot of on the fly UI generation off of what you're doing instead of hard coded UI that comes into play.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kansu: Duolingo aims to improve existing subjects 10x rather than expand subject count
“The goal is not to get to 40 subjects and do them all equally the same. I think make what we have, Tenex, better is the primary goal.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kansu: Merchandising will become a much larger revenue line for Duolingo
“We do have this revenue line, but it's incredibly small today, but I think it will be way bigger is merchandising.”