The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Deeter: Anthropic will be valued over $1 trillion within three years
“I mean, we put our money where our mouth is. We've been a buyer. So over, and that's again, like we a year ago when we were buyers, we still wouldn't have didn't conceive of that.”
Deeter: AI Will Produce Multiple Trillion-Dollar Companies
“I think there's going to be a lot of trillion dollar businesses that are created from this.”
Deeter: Top three LLM companies will raise $100B in six months
“I think the numbers right now, the top three LLMs, if you include you know, Anthropoc, OpenAI, and X in there, ah, are gonna raise a hundred billion dollars in this six month period”
Deeter: AI Will Double Vertical SaaS TAM and Valuation Just Like Payments Did
“I think AI is going to do the same thing, that what it can do you know, with Service Titan, as they talk about automating the technician experience and the ability to go out there and have a co-pilot alongside of you.”
Deeter: 10-Person Micro-Businesses Will Reach Billion-Dollar Valuations
“I think we're going to see the era of the micro business. I think that we're going to have, you know, 10 person companies that are crossing billion dollar valuations and, you know, kids in schools are going to be able to launch businesses in real time in, in w…”
Deeter: AI will mirror top scientists' reasoning within 18 months
“The curve is still up into the right, without a doubt, and I do believe that we will cross over this term. You know, people use you know various different terms about you know, levels of reasoning and awareness and AGI and the like. I have no doubt we're, if w…”
Deeter: Maturing venture market will crush mid-sized generalist VC firms
“This maturation is going to make it tough in the middle.”
Deeter: Vast majority of mature private software companies won't go public
“Vast majority are not going to get public and consolidation will make sense because at the core, a lot of these businesses are very high gross margin and are run pretty inefficiently because we've got a growth mindset and we're certainly not optimizing for cos…”
Deeter: Venture Capital Index Will Underperform S&P 500 Again
“Historically, it has underperformed the S&P and probably will again in this case but you'll make money.”
High cloud valuation multiples today will look cheap in the long term
“Whatever rich prices we're paying today, We will get rewarded many times over if we pick the winners and hold onto them long term, and so we're certainly anxious as everyone else is around the multiples. They are rich, but at the end of the day, I absolutely b…”
Deeter: Consumer delivery startups face shut downs as funding dries up
“A number of these delivery businesses, as an example, have been targeted. And I suspect several of those will have unfortunate outcomes and will not have further capital available.”
Bessemer unlikely to pursue evergreen structures or asset management roll-ups
“We're seeing, you know, other firms adding asset management businesses and debt products and roll-ups and doing all sorts of things. You know, there's some kernels in there that we agree with. There's a lot in there we probably aren't going to pursue.”
Venture Capital Will Bifurcate Into Regional Seed Firms and Global Platforms
“I do believe that the world is going to skew to a bimodal curve where there's going to be Super stage or regional firms. I put you in that bucket where you are going to be a fantastic early stage European partner for seed stage firms, and we look forward to co…”
Cloud Companies Will Absorb Multiple Compression Through Strong Revenue Growth
“These companies are growing at north of 40% on the public side, and on the private side, usually growing 80 to a hundred percent plus for the best companies, and so you can absorb some multiple compression and still compound value and be a win for everyone inv…”
Cloud macro battle will result in fatalities among legacy tech vendors
“And so there's this macro battle of risk going on with the legacy vendors, and there will be some fatalities there, but it's enabling the infrastructure service layer that now the pure place can continue to benefit from.”
Multiple $10B+ private cloud companies will soon transition to public markets
“You're going to see these Ten billion dollar plus caliber companies starting to flip from private to public, and the lights will turn on on this segment in a way that public market investors and, frankly, the community more broadly doesn't yet fully appreciate”
Deeter predicts automated bookkeeping startup ScaleFactor will become a household name
“So the most recently announced one is a small company in Austin That people probably haven't heard of yet called scale factor, which I firmly believe will be a household name in the coming years.”
Deeter: Late-stage private SaaS companies face the hardest squeeze ahead
“It's really the late stage private companies that are going to get squeezed the hardest in the coming months because they've had this reality distortion field in the jobs in the sense of valuations and operations in some cases. That were, that was really fuele…”
Deeter: Ecosystem startups around top LLMs will produce 100x VC returns
“However, there are hundreds of other Really compelling venture businesses that will be created in and around those ecosystems. And I do believe there will be great venture outcomes by from a number of companies in and around those businesses. And so the power …”
Deeter: Canva, Anthropic, and Perplexity will not go public anytime soon
“Now you look at, you know, Canva, you know, forty billion plus, and Anthropica with seventy billion plus, and perplexity, you know deep into DekuKorn status, and like, these businesses, you know, aren't going public anytime soon.”