The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Moore: AI code generation startups face heavy threat from model providers
“I'd certainly be a little nervous about how the code gen stuff is going to play out today, because it seems like that is just far and away the killer use case for LLMs and therefore the one that these big model providers are going to lean into next from an app…”
Moore: Only five to six mega VC platforms will dominate the market
“It doesn't appear as though the supply of capital from platforms like the one that I've just joined or some of the others that we've talked about is going to go up in, in, in size. And so again, you could argue that these five to six firms kind of have this ca…”
Moore: AI companies replacing human labor will yield unprecedented scale
“These software companies that are not just augmenting, but in some cases replacing the work that humans do and the budget allocated towards paying them for that work, these companies are going to get bigger, right?”
Moore: Every frontier AI lab will build business and consumer products
“It seems very likely to me that in some form or another, Every single one of these frontier model labs will begin building both business and consumer facing products.”
Moore: VC will consolidate into a barbell structure
“I see a world in which both ends of the barbell really, really continue to rise, meaning small dedicated specialist firms on one end and large platforms on the other end. And I think that uncanny valley in between is is, is going to be an increasingly challeng…”
Moore: Frontier tech giants may stay private long-term on private demand
“If we really are talking about companies that are going to get to some level of AGI such that they're going to be, you know, not just multi-trillions, but potentially larger than that. If we're talking about how Starlink and, you know, the kind of assets being…”
Moore: Spreadsheet investors will be pushed into later stages
“And so my view is that these spreadsheet investors are just going to keep getting pushed later and later stage.”
Moore: AI progress will continue as research labs find new scaling dimensions
“And right now that appears to be very unlikely, at least in the near term, but at some point it could happen. But I also have just learned to never bet against human ingenuity, and given the best and the brightest are now so heavily concentrated concentrated i…”
Bucky Moore: Venture liquidity constraints are not a permanent structural issue
“I do not think it's a permanent structural challenge because I believe that in the same way that great entrepreneurs flock towards white space, there will be solutions and new products that get devised by investment managers to solve for these liquidity challe…”