The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Moore: OpenAI blocked investors in enterprise search startup Glean
“OpenAI famously saying, hey, if you're an investor in Glean, you don't get to be an investor in OpenAI, which would foreshadow they plan to play in that space.”
Moore: AI code generation startups face heavy threat from model providers
“I'd certainly be a little nervous about how the code gen stuff is going to play out today, because it seems like that is just far and away the killer use case for LLMs and therefore the one that these big model providers are going to lean into next from an app…”
Moore: Only five to six mega VC platforms will dominate the market
“It doesn't appear as though the supply of capital from platforms like the one that I've just joined or some of the others that we've talked about is going to go up in, in, in size. And so again, you could argue that these five to six firms kind of have this ca…”
Moore: AI companies replacing human labor will yield unprecedented scale
“These software companies that are not just augmenting, but in some cases replacing the work that humans do and the budget allocated towards paying them for that work, these companies are going to get bigger, right?”
Moore: Enterprise CIOs face termination threats over AI adoption
“If you go and talk to a CIO or a CTO of a large enterprise today, they're furiously seeking out ways to apply AI to their business. And the reason for that is because their CEO and their board told them, you're going to get fired because the entire fate of our…”
Moore: Every frontier AI lab will build business and consumer products
“It seems very likely to me that in some form or another, Every single one of these frontier model labs will begin building both business and consumer facing products.”
Moore: VC will consolidate into a barbell structure
“I see a world in which both ends of the barbell really, really continue to rise, meaning small dedicated specialist firms on one end and large platforms on the other end. And I think that uncanny valley in between is is, is going to be an increasingly challeng…”
Moore: AI model providers hit billions in run rate growing over 100%
“We're talking about billions of dollars of run rate growing in excess of a hundred percent year over year. I don't think we've ever seen that before, right? Like you talk about ServiceNow doing, you know, billions of dollars in ARR and growing, you know, 20, 3…”
Moore: Frontier tech giants may stay private long-term on private demand
“If we really are talking about companies that are going to get to some level of AGI such that they're going to be, you know, not just multi-trillions, but potentially larger than that. If we're talking about how Starlink and, you know, the kind of assets being…”
Moore: Spreadsheet investors will be pushed into later stages
“And so my view is that these spreadsheet investors are just going to keep getting pushed later and later stage.”
Moore: AI progress will continue as research labs find new scaling dimensions
“And right now that appears to be very unlikely, at least in the near term, but at some point it could happen. But I also have just learned to never bet against human ingenuity, and given the best and the brightest are now so heavily concentrated concentrated i…”
Bucky Moore: Venture liquidity constraints are not a permanent structural issue
“I do not think it's a permanent structural challenge because I believe that in the same way that great entrepreneurs flock towards white space, there will be solutions and new products that get devised by investment managers to solve for these liquidity challe…”
Moore: Kleiner Perkins treated investing in competitors as a strict red line
“When we were at Kleiner Perkins, it was something that we, it was kind of a red line that we wouldn't cross. And the reason for that is because we invested in so few companies and we go so deep with each of those companies that In our mind, it was just too har…”
Moore: Countless talented founders are currently trapped in mediocre startups
“There are countless companies in the industry right now where you have really talented founders working on something that's kind of working, but maybe not working to the degree that they hope. And in some sense, they're kind of stuck with it.”
Bucky Moore: Top venture returns come from concentrating capital in seed winners
“If you look at some of the best venture investments in history, they've been these seed investments in these companies that have gone on to grow really, really large, and they've come from an investor who's continued to concentrate more and more capital in tha…”