why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Singerman predicts Founders Fund's $200M Anduril check will turn into $2B
“Enduro is going to be an extremely valuable company. I am, there's, yes, quite sure of that. We are not going to lose that two hundred million dollar check. That two hundred million dollars will turn into, you know, two billion.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Founders Fund refuses to pay peak 2021 valuations for top startups
“If even the best companies want You know, end of 2021, beginning of 2022 prices where other comps in their market have gone down by 80%, then we're just, we're also just not going to play that game. Like, we don't have any pressure to invest capital.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Founders Fund Has Never Had and Will Never Have Monday Partner Meetings
“Now, Founders Fund doesn't have any Monday morning partner meeting. We never have, and we never will.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brian Singerman refuses to do low-level operational work for portfolio companies
“I don't know how to operate companies. I'm not going to seed your top of funnel. I'm not going to Do a bunch of like low level operations work for the company. But what I am pretty good at is, is strategy.”
Assertion Supported
Anduril won major government defense contracts within two years
“I think it took Andrel two years. The speed at which these guys were able to break in to these large government contracts was astounding.”
Prediction Held up
High startup valuations will drive down VC return multiples
“The valuation inflation is extremely real, and you will make less multiples because of that.”
Assertion Contradicted
No other Silicon Valley company was innovating in defense before Anduril
“At the time when we did this, there was no other company in Silicon Valley innovating in defense.”
Assertion Supported
Singerman: Private startup valuations lag public market corrections
“There's such a huge price mismatch between, let's say a company's last round of financing and what the macro Is that it's really difficult to invest right now simply because private companies lag public markets in terms of pricing by quite a bit.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Singerman: Founders Fund clearly saw Airbnb's huge network effect early on
“We definitely saw at the time that the network effect on Airbnb was, at the time, was huge, and yeah, the market was it was clear that they could penetrate into the travel market, or even the lodging market, which I guarantee you, Harry, is huge.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Singerman: 3x returns on $10M checks are meaningless for multi-billion dollar funds
“Our funds are multi-billion dollars, right? Like if we have a. Ten million dollar check, there's no real difference between that going to zero or that going to. Thirty million. I mean, there's just no difference between those numbers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Every Founders Fund partner operates an independent investment strategy
“Everybody at Founders Fund runs their own strategy, and my strategy is very different from even everybody else's at Founders Fund, let alone other VCs.”
Assertion Supported
Palantir took over 10 years to land its first government contract
“I think it took Palantir a decade plus to get its first real government contract.”
Assertion Supported
Anduril exclusively sells to the US and its allies
“Yeah, I mean, we only sell to the US and our allies. We don't do anything where it would not be good with the US government to work with. We would not work with any countries that are not, you know, total allies in the United States.”
Assertion Partly supported
Y Combinator Demo Days Had Only 20 to 30 Attendees in 2007
“This is about when maybe 20 people would be at a Y Combinator demo day, maybe 30.”
Assertion Supported
Singerman: Joined Founders Fund after Sean Parker introduction during SpaceX deal evaluation
“And that's when I met Sean Parker and we became friends and he. Said, Hey, why don't you check out what we're doing at Founders Fund? And I came in and that's when we were considering a little investment in a company called SpaceX and, you know, said, this is …”