why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: NFTs will return in the next crypto cycle
“I think NFTs will come back in the next cycle.”
Prediction Partly held up
Armstrong: Coinbase will evolve into a holding company of decentralized units
“The future is a little hard to predict, but look, here's one vision I've had for it, which is that I think Coinbase Global, the parent company is starting to become more like a holding company over time. And we have this portfolio of different products, differ…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: ICOs face short-term correction before broad long-term adoption
“So I think the long-term trend for ICOs is very positive, or token sales. I think that's a new thing that's been invented, and it will probably get a lot of adoption. I think in the short term, we'll probably see a correction on it, if I had to guess.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: ICOs will disrupt venture capital over next two to ten years
“If this trend around ICOs goes through its correction period and then continues to get traction, which I believe it will, it's hard to say on what timeframe, but let's say, you know, over the next two to 10 years or something like that, I do think that is pret…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Digital currencies will reach Visa-level transaction throughput
“I think there's nothing preventing digital currency from getting to Visa level. If today Ethereum can do somewhere between 10 and 25 transactions a second, that's really only two or three orders of magnitude away from Visa scale.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong: Frictionless crypto payments will exceed Visa volume by 10x
“I actually think if payments become as low friction as I think they will in the future, you know, you could be doing dozens of payments as you walk down the street, or your phone as you're browsing websites, or like, we'll actually see an order of magnitude in…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Digital currency will bring financial services to 2.5B unbanked people
“There's a lot of people today who don't have access to the financial system, 2.5 billion people actually, according to the Gates Foundation, I think digital currency will bring financial services to them.”