why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: NFTs will return in the next crypto cycle
“I think NFTs will come back in the next cycle.”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: FTX and Binance took riskier international regulatory paths than Coinbase
“I think generally, I think both FTX and Binance have been really good at execution and You know, they've taken a different risk posture, I would say, internationally as well, which, you know, we'll, we'll see, have to see what happens with that. But Coinbase i…”
Prediction Partly held up
Armstrong: Coinbase will evolve into a holding company of decentralized units
“The future is a little hard to predict, but look, here's one vision I've had for it, which is that I think Coinbase Global, the parent company is starting to become more like a holding company over time. And we have this portfolio of different products, differ…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: ICOs face short-term correction before broad long-term adoption
“So I think the long-term trend for ICOs is very positive, or token sales. I think that's a new thing that's been invented, and it will probably get a lot of adoption. I think in the short term, we'll probably see a correction on it, if I had to guess.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: ICOs will disrupt venture capital over next two to ten years
“If this trend around ICOs goes through its correction period and then continues to get traction, which I believe it will, it's hard to say on what timeframe, but let's say, you know, over the next two to 10 years or something like that, I do think that is pret…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Digital currencies will reach Visa-level transaction throughput
“I think there's nothing preventing digital currency from getting to Visa level. If today Ethereum can do somewhere between 10 and 25 transactions a second, that's really only two or three orders of magnitude away from Visa scale.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong: Frictionless crypto payments will exceed Visa volume by 10x
“I actually think if payments become as low friction as I think they will in the future, you know, you could be doing dozens of payments as you walk down the street, or your phone as you're browsing websites, or like, we'll actually see an order of magnitude in…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Institutional clients continue signing up for Coinbase at a massive rate
“Institutions are still signing up at a massive rate.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: I have never fired an employee in anger on the spot
“And I, frankly, I've never done that once in my whole life. I've never fired somebody in anger in the moment, right?”
Assertion Supported
Coinbase public status unlocked deals with BlackRock and Meta
“We've been able to close deals with, you know, BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, and, you know, Meta, formerly Facebook, like we're now, especially with our Coinbase cloud business and things like that, we're now able to power things with Fort…”
Assertion Partly supported
Coinbase raised $3B debt in one week with zero CEO meetings
“You know, I was kind of surprised to learn that like in, in 20, 21 you know, our CFO came to me and it was like the, you know, the markets are really good. The debt terms are really good. We should probably stock up for the next, you know, if there's another c…”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Coinbase generated $7B revenue and $3B profit in 2021
“We did do, we did seven billion in revenue, three billion in profit.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Digital currency will bring financial services to 2.5B unbanked people
“There's a lot of people today who don't have access to the financial system, 2.5 billion people actually, according to the Gates Foundation, I think digital currency will bring financial services to them.”