The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lightcap: AI expectations will dip before rapid model improvements outpace them
“I think very quickly expectations will start to come down as people come into contact with today's models, but then very quickly also these models will get really, really good, and you'll see this inversion of expectations reality where all of a sudden then ex…”
Lightcap: AI model scaling laws have held predictably consistent for six years
“I think it's how consistently the scaling of models has worked. It still breaks my brain. Like I don't, maybe I've been, if we've, I've watched the same trend line for six years now, but I still find it incredible that you can make these models bigger and they…”