The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Average VC returns over 10-20 years underperform public market indexes
“And the fact of the matter is, I mean, if you look back 1020 years, average VC returns are not that compelling. In fact, they're worse than the indexes.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 10:28 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Sequoia's early Figma investment yielded 100x while late-stage yielded 2x
“If you look at the difference between the Sequoia round in Figma or the durable round in Figma, right? It's the difference between, you know, having a hundred plus X outcome and a two X outcome.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 16:36 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: The 2022 growth stock crash merely returned valuations to 2020 baselines
“This is not a blood in the streets moment. It feels catastrophic because we have growth names that are down 40, 50, 60, 70% in the public markets. But look at where they are compared to where we were in January of 2020. For most of these companies, it's just g…”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 34:28 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Snowflake will eventually surpass its peak market valuation
“The truth of the matter is, I think Snowflake will be worth a lot more in the future than it is today, and even more in the future than it was then.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 38:05 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Tiny fraction of VC deals generates majority of industry profits
“That's a tiny number of firms and a tiny number of deals that represent the vast majority of the gross profits that get generated in the industry.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 10:18 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: A 20% risk-free rate beats 70th percentile VC returns
“That's a higher rate of return than the 70th percentile in venture.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 31:04 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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