why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Average VC returns over 10-20 years underperform public market indexes
“And the fact of the matter is, I mean, if you look back 1020 years, average VC returns are not that compelling. In fact, they're worse than the indexes.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Sequoia's early Figma investment yielded 100x while late-stage yielded 2x
“If you look at the difference between the Sequoia round in Figma or the durable round in Figma, right? It's the difference between, you know, having a hundred plus X outcome and a two X outcome.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: The 2022 growth stock crash merely returned valuations to 2020 baselines
“This is not a blood in the streets moment. It feels catastrophic because we have growth names that are down 40, 50, 60, 70% in the public markets. But look at where they are compared to where we were in January of 2020. For most of these companies, it's just g…”
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Snowflake will eventually surpass its peak market valuation
“The truth of the matter is, I think Snowflake will be worth a lot more in the future than it is today, and even more in the future than it was then.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Tiny fraction of VC deals generates majority of industry profits
“That's a tiny number of firms and a tiny number of deals that represent the vast majority of the gross profits that get generated in the industry.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: A 20% risk-free rate beats 70th percentile VC returns
“That's a higher rate of return than the 70th percentile in venture.”