The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Gerstner: Investors will lose massive capital on low-revenue $1B+ software rounds
“Listen, these 1,000,000,002 1,000,000,003 billion dollar software rounds that are done with very little revenue, you have to assume a tremendous amount goes right. And then you probably have to assume an absurd multiple and everybody's counting on the greater …”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 28:26 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Gerstner: VC returns will compress as the industry scales
“The industry is going from highly fragmented to much more industrial scale. Returns are going to compress.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 45:30 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Gerstner: Institutional capital has permanently increased venture capital supply
“This is going to mean that we have a permanent increase In the amount of capital that exists in venture capital, a permanent increase and pension funds went in.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 45:04 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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